New Analysis Shows Scale of South Africa’s Economic Stagnation

Staff Writer

July 8, 2026

2 min read

New research from The Common Sense shows that South Africa’s economy has significantly lagged the expansion of both the world and its emerging-market peers over both the last 35 and last 15 years.
New Analysis Shows Scale of South Africa’s Economic Stagnation
Image by Brent Stirton - Getty Images

The Common Sense has conducted an analysis of South Africa’s economic expansion compared to that of the world and selected countries since 1990.

The analysis was done by assigning each country’s economy a score or size of 100 points in 1990 and then calculating that score for 2025, based on the extent to which the total value of goods and services in each economy has expanded.

The data showed that South Africa’s economy rose from a score of 100 in 1990 to 182.0 in 2025. The world saw its score increase from 100 to 318.8. Among the most impressive performers was China, which saw its share increase to 1 877.3, Ethiopia, which saw its score rise to 1 120.0, and India, with a score of 794.4 in 2025.

The chart below shows the data for South Africa and the world and a selection of other economies.

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The Common Sense also conducted the same exercise by basing the South African economy to 100 in 2010 and then comparing it to the world and select economies.

This time, the data showed that South Africa saw its score increase to 118.7, while the world’s score grew to 161.1. China’s score grew to 251.6, Ethiopia’s to 337.1, and India’s to 240.6.

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What these analyses show is that on a 35-year and a 15-year view, South Africa has underperformed economically, relative to the world and to its emerging-market peers. That lines up with the country’s unemployment and GDP data.

The chart below compares South Africa’s unemployment rate with that of the rest of the world.

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The chart below tracks real GDP per capita data from 1994 to 2025 and shows how the GDP per capita number has declined since 2008.

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