South Africa’s March consumer inflation rate came in line with the inflation target of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), with a reading of 3.1%, compared to 3.0% in February.

The SARB currently has an inflation target of 3% with a tolerance band of one percentage point either way.

However, the trend in consumer inflation is likely to move upward in April, as the March figure reflects a lag in the transmission of global oil price increases into domestic fuel costs. At the start of April, South African households faced a R3.06 per litre petrol increase alongside Eskom’s 8.76% tariff hike, both of which are set to push consumer inflation higher toward 4.0% in April.

Despite the lower inflation rate in March, the SARB and investors will likely wait for April’s reading for clearer guidance on the direction of South Africa’s interest rates. Given the expectation of a higher inflation number in April, Bheki Mahlobo, economics and policy Editor of The Common Sense, said, “We maintain our outlook of a cautious SARB that will seek to hold interest rates at 6.75% as inflation will likely rise above its target at the start of the second quarter of 2026.”