I’m writing this Dispatch on Friday, 8 May. Today 81 years ago the streets of London were brimming with war-weary, yet jubilant, people celebrating their victory over Nazism. On that glorious Victory in Europe or VE day, the full extent of the Nazi horrors was yet to be revealed, but I’m fairly confident that most British people celebrating would never have thought that their grandchildren would live in a city where Jews would be attacked in the streets just for being Jews.

Could they have conceived of a London in which a statue of Winston Churchill, the man who, at times alone, stood up to the forces of tyranny and darkness, would be defaced by mobs. Most likely not. And yet here we are.

As I was working on this, the results from the United Kingdom (UK) local elections were coming in and it seemed like election day was disastrous for Labour, pretty bad for the Tories, pretty good for the Greens, and utterly terrific for Reform. Your correspondent is a somewhat sceptical of Reform and he thoroughly rejects the emetic agenda of the Greens, but there is something exhilarating about ordinary voters throwing out the old, the failed, the tired, and bringing in the new. By choosing to reward Reform to such a degree, perhaps the British people are indicating that they want to return to a country that stands for something noble and great, just as it did on that day 81 years ago. There is a lot of promise in the UK as I discussed last week. Let’s hope Reform uses its political momentum to get the country back to its classical liberal roots and to become prosperous and strong once more.

Back in the US of A there is a great deal going on. Let’s get to it:

Take the loss as a win!

President Trump promised the American people so much winning they would get tired of it. Well, his Administration has just lost, once again, on his key economic agenda: import tariffs. After the Supreme Court struck down his tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, Mr Trump imposed new 10% tariffs globally under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. That section allows the president to impose tariffs, or quotas, up to 15% for a period of 150 days to address “large and serious balance of payments deficits … or other fundamental international payment problems.”

This week the US Court of International Trade ruled against the Trump Administration on these new tariffs. Section 122 was written after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, which led to considerable monetary turmoil. Those days are over, but the Trump Administration argued it could use the law because of this country’s persistently large trade deficits. But the trade deficits and the trade balance are not the same thing, as the judges noted in ruling against the Administration.

There are at least two reasons to welcome this ruling. First, the judges put the Administration back in its place. Congress writes the laws, the Executive acts on those laws. If Congress had written the law such that the White House could impose tariffs to deal with trade deficits, it would have done so. It didn’t, and we should all celebrate these judges recognizing the proper constitutional role that the different branches of government play. DC’s residents tend to suffer from shortsightedness, but those Republicans furious that the Trump Administration has lost this will be very thankful when a Democrat is in the White House and tries something similar and pushes the Constitution’s limits.

Second, the Trump border tax policy is economically asinine, costly to consumers and businesses, and politically unpopular. Mr. President, if you happen to be reading my little missive, please take the loss, drop the tariffs policy, and you will reap great economic and political wins as a result.

No doubt there are many countries, not only South Africa, celebrating this latest court ruling. But don’t forget that the White House still has a great deal of latitude and power when it comes to setting trade policy. This remains the world’s largest economy, and it still wants to and needs to trade internationally, notwithstanding the anti-trade rhetoric from Mr Trump. There are deals to be had that will be mutually beneficial … are you hearing me, Cyril?

Illegal immigrant jobs vs American jobs

Another key policy of the second Trump Administration has been the clampdown on illegal border crossings and the repatriation of illegal immigrants. The initial actions by this Administration to stop the uncontrolled and completely lawless border crossings on the southern border were entirely justified and broadly very popular. The fact that President Biden, or whomever was really setting policy back then, just allowed the border to be overrun created a humanitarian catastrophe and a political anchor that dragged down Kamala Harris ‘s campaign.

The roundups of illegal immigrants in the months that followed have been less popular, partly because the sight of masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents on the streets searching for suspects smacked of something fascistic and un-American. In addition, in many neighbourhoods, immigrants who arrived here illegally, but who are otherwise law-abiding, have become embedded and part of the community. I for one had a great handyman, Tony, from El Salvador who helped me with all sorts of projects for many years. I haven’t been able to contact him for months and I suspect he went back to his country of birth.

A new study out, published as a working paper by the National Bureau of Economic Research, finds that in those communities where ICE agents have been most active have seen a decline in work by likely illegal immigrants. But the interesting finding is that there has not been any concomitant increase in employment among US-born workers who are likely to work in the sectors dominated by immigrants, such as construction. The authors suspect that there is complementarity between the jobs the immigrants took and the US-born workers fulfilled. Previous research has found that an increase in immigrant workers led to a decrease in unemployment among American-born workers so when the workers are going in the opposite direction, then a reverse could be expected.

Your correspondent is not in any way in favour of open borders and he believes that people who entered this country illegally have no rights to stay and they should leave and re-enter legally. But I’m not an immigration restrictionist either, and I recognise the enormous benefits immigrants bring to this country, economically as well as culturally. I doubt this study will change many minds in the Trump Administration, but it should help us understand why so many of the benefits promised to blue collar workers by President Trump are not materializing as they had during his first Administration.

Oh California …

California could be one of this country’s best states. It is beautiful, has a wonderful climate, and is filled with creative and energetic entrepreneurs that have made it the world’s fourth largest economy. At least, it once had those entrepreneurs … they’re now leaving. As Adam Smith noted, there is a lot of ruin in a country. You can push bad policies for a long time and remain prosperous, but eventually things start to turn. Years of bad policies now mean that California has the country’s highest cost-of-living adjusted poverty rate, the worst housing affordably, and the highest levels of functional illiteracy. As a result, the state has been losing people to places that are far less pretty and with much worse weather, like Texas. Over the past decade net out migration reached nearly two million people who got fed up with the high taxes, the onerous regulations, and the stultifying intolerance of the leftist woke brigades that dominate its major cities.

The comedian Adam Carolla likens California to that beautiful blonde girl at high school who had all the boys falling for her. Her looks meant that she could get away with being a complete b*tch, while still getting loads of dates and attention. Yet now that girl is in her 50s, her looks have faded, but her personality hasn’t changed. She can’t understand why she’s alone at home on a Saturday night and has no friends. That’s like California. The shine is off and all the boys and girls have left for Tennessee and Florida and Texas where the state governments work hard to attract residents by offering zero state income taxes and easy regulations.

You’d think the Democrats that have been running California into the ground for the past two decades would get it. Apparently not. At a recent debate among those running to be the state’s next governor, one leading contender, Katie Porter, committed herself to providing free healthcare to all illegal immigrants in the state. California is projected to have a budget deficit exceeding $18 billion this year, so where the money will come from to pay for all that healthcare is anyone’s guess.

Meanwhile, the city of Los Angeles has mayoral elections this year, with the incumbent Karen Bass facing serious challenges from several challengers, including Spencer Pratt, a reality TV personality. Pratt used his media skills to put together some hard-hitting viral videos, like this, and this, that have not only become viral hits, they are also another example of the extraordinary power of artificial intelligence (AI). Your correspondent can think of a media savvy mayoral candidate in South Africa who is battling similar corrupt elites who have driven a city into the ground. Perhaps she could use AI to similar effect.

Speaking of viral hits …

The battle for the post-Trump future leader of the Republican Party continues, with the leading contenders being the sitting vice-president, JD Vance and the secretary of state, Marco Rubio. The latter just boosted his chances after he gave off-the-cuff remarks about his vision for America while answering media questions at the White House.

When asked what his hope was for America, Rubio responded:

“My hope for America is what it has always been. I think it’s the hope I think we all share. We want it to continue to be the place where anyone from anywhere can achieve anything. Where you’re not limited by the circumstances of your birth, by the colour of your skin, by your ethnicity, but frankly it’s a place where you are able to overcome challenges and achieve your full potential. I think that should be the goal of every country in the world frankly. But I think in the U.S. we’re not perfect, our history is not one of perfection, but it’s still better than anyone else’s history, and ours is a story of perpetual improvement. Each generation has left the next generation of Americans freer, more prosperous, safer, and that is our goal as well. But it is a unique and exceptional country and as we come upon this 250-year anniversary, I think we have a lot to learn and be proud of in our history: it is one of perpetual and continuous improvement, where each generation has done its part to bring us closer to fulfilling the vision that the founders had for this country upon its founding.”

Damn right. Let’s hope Mr Rubio’s optimistic vision, which is based in classical liberal ideas, prevails against the more depressing ideas of his MAGA rivals that seek to discard so many of the liberal traditions that have made us the richest and most powerful nation on earth.

Update on Virginia

Closing out this Dispatch, two weeks ago I wrote about the state of Virginia’s outrageous gerrymandering of voting districts that would have effectively disenfranchised millions of Republican voters. Well panic not dear readers, the Virginia Supreme Court just struck down those new districts, restoring the old districts that more fairly and accurately reflect the state’s bipartisan nature. This is pleasing not only because it shows not only how our state legal system of appeals can work and our Constitutional order reigns, but also how you can push Orwellian lies about “fairness,” while enacting great unfairness, only so far.

That’s all for now.