There is an “information operation” afoot and it is a very expert and effective one. From a professional perspective it deserves admiration. During the Cold War the people behind this one would have won medals. The KGB called these “active measures” operations. They are conducted in the open, through public institutions and the media, and their purpose is to so skew perceptions of reality that even with access to good information a normal person loses the ability to use that information to reach a sensible conclusion – let alone a conclusion in their own best interests.

The current operation is around Tony Leon and his firm Resolve Communications. The strategy behind the operation is to disable the advantage the DA holds over the ANC in terms of good governance by associating the DA with state capture. The purpose is to so skew public perceptions about the DA that the party loses a degree of its ability to campaign against the ANC on the issue of state capture – which would be greatly to the DA’s disadvantage come the 2029 and 2034 elections.

So, the story is created that Tony Leon and his firm are guilty of state capture. Scores of news reports over the past week have made that insinuation echoed by hundreds of social media accounts.

The “evidence” presented is that Leon had asked politicians to meet with his clients, offered to draft questions for MPs, and asked politicians to consider alternative policies. He has even advised Starlink! That would certainly be the end for South Africa’s economy. The public is told this a direct throwback to the Gupta era – a virtual facsimile. As with the Guptas, charges have been laid with the public protector and calls have been made for parliamentary investigations and the like. This has been repeated hundreds of times over the past week. “Whistleblowers” have even emerged to confess that Leon’s firm approached them too! An overexcited twitterer wondered why Leon had not been arrested. Except that this is all perfectly normal. It is perfectly normal for there to be lobbying firms* – they play a very important and useful role in any society in advising firms how to deal with politicians, and politicians how to deal with investors. It is perfectly normal for a lobbying firm to ask a politician to meet with a client. It is normal too to draft questions for MPs and ask them to consider asking these in Parliament, just as it is perfectly normal to ask a politician to consider an alternative policy.

*[As an aside: Where do the lemmings think politicians get their ideas from? Descended directly from heaven – untainted by human influence? No, they come from the cut and thrust of the battle of ideas, a battle in which corporations are represented by lobbyists – corporations, you must recall, that are trying to invest money in South Africa, which will create jobs and tax, all of which is good. And in the course of that, the politicians will come under pressure – good again, can you imagine how little investment there would be if the politicians were not pressured to permit more!]

[Another aside: If ideas did come from heaven South Africa would have Starlink… and everyone's life would be better and the economy too].

But the manner of the presentation of this “evidence” against Leon has so skewed perceptions of reality that many people are genuinely confused about whether maybe Leon has done something wrong, maybe he is like the Guptas – even though all the information at hand makes it plain that he has not. And you can see how well the operation is working.

The Leon operation is particularly clever because while nominally directed at Leon it is in practice directed at the DA. The ANC is polling at under 40% and far below that in the metros just months out from a local government election. Lots of people have already lost lots of money and stand to lose even more. The DA is in the ascendancy and has a new fresh-faced leader who must be discredited. But because the operation is not formally directed at the DA, it does not know whether to respond or how because Leon is separate from the DA. Can it respond? Would that not be a response on Leon’s behalf? Would any response not look like a defence of state capture? If it responded with Leon, would that not be a smoking gun? None of these options look good. Maybe then, thinks the DA, it is best not to respond, and this will all pass – it won’t. As the days tick by the damage to the DA brand compounds while its new leader is made to look weak – and weakness will invite more attacks and new campaigns on an ever-escalating scale ( - here’s looking at you kid:).

Perhaps the DA thinks it should distance itself from Leon and Resolve and Resolve’s clients? That would be a mistake. The operation has a second objective, which is to get the DA to distance itself from Leon and other high-calibre actors in its broader universe. The understanding is that without access to such people, and their advice, the DA would be much less able to govern successfully or to develop the ideas to do so. An insular DA, turned inwards and cut off from outside expertise and influence, is a much less intimidating proposition come the 2029 and 2034 elections.

This is all completely normal. Information operations go on all the time and have throughout history and are easy to identify. Just look for evidence that what you are being asked to believe does not actually align with any of the material evidence as you, as a thinking person, are able to see and understand it. You are never the crazy one – trust the evidence and trust your ability to think about it.

It is also understandable that that these things happen. Political actors and their associates have interests and need to defend these and must be expected to do so. It is naïve to expect anything else. In fact there is something quite impressive about an operation of this scale and effect – just seen from a professional perspective.

Nor is this sort of operation unlawful. The extent to which it works is proportional to the extent to which lemmings make up society, and if they fall under its influence, that is something for which they more than anyone else will pay the price.

Countering the effects is easy – just point out publicly what is happening and why and from there make sure that your side puts more and better information into the public mind than your opponent is doing. Do that, and you win in the end. It is a simple matter of accounting – that is the hard rule of these things.

The new DA leader should thank the people behind this operation. They are doing him and his party a favour by showing that the party is not well geared to anticipating and heading off this sort of thing – it is not a professional enough outfit or tough enough. Best to know that a few weeks into your term of office than to find out a few years down the line or, worse, in the months ahead of the 2029 or 2034 elections.