The steep erosion of African National Congress (ANC) support is no longer confined to suburban swing voters. It is now equally evident in townships, rural areas, and low-income communities, the core blocs that once kept the party so comfortably well above 50% in national elections.

Late last year the ANC polled at 37% and the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 32%, a gap of five points. But the greater warning, perhaps even the writing on the wall, sat beneath the headline number.

Among black voters, the ANC stands at 45%, with the DA at 15%, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) at 15%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 10%.

Among rural voters, the ANC sits at 47%, with the DA at 16%, MK at 12%, and the EFF at 6%.

In townships, the ANC is at 39%, with the DA at 16%, MK at 14%, and the EFF also at 14%.

Among the poorest of people, those earning less than R2 000 a month, ANC support stood at 41%, with the DA at 22%, MK at 16%, and the EFF at 10%.

The implication is extraordinary, that even if black, poor, rural, and township voters were the only people who cast votes the ANC would still be at below 50%. That matters a lot because if the ANC cannot secure majority support among black, rural, township, and low-income voters, it has no plausible way back to political dominance. And yet, even at this late hour, whether in its foreign policy or its domestic reform agenda, it shows little sign of turning.

From the naval exercises off Cape Town last week, to the meek reform proposals in its recent 8 January statement, to its general secretary’s renewed enthusiasm for expropriation and Reserve Bank nationalisation, the party leadership seems indifferent to the data and its implications.