COP30 and the Limits of Renewable Ambition

The COP30 climate summit is underway in Belém, Brazil, and once again the world has been primed with the familiar framing that climate change is an “imminent catastrophe.” For more than thirty years, this annual gathering has pressed nations to radically overhaul energy systems and pour vast sums into renewables and green technologies, effectively reshaping entire economies.

But that story is starting to shift. This month, Bill Gates released a memo calling for a recalibration of emphasis on this doomsday scenario. While he affirms that climate change remains a serious problem, he rejects the notion that it will lead to civilisation’s end. Instead, Gates argues we should prioritise human welfare, technology, and practical solutions.

The memo lands at a moment when major powers are diverging. The Trump administration has chosen not to attend COP30 at all, a departure even from the usual pattern of contested participation by the United States (US). Federal climate policy has oscillated between different US administrations for decades. President Bill Clinton signed Kyoto but never sought ratification, George W Bush rejected it, Barack Obama championed Paris, and Donald Trump later withdrew.

That inconsistency has generated a patchwork of climate action in which US states like California forge ahead even when Washington pulls back. Governor Gavin Newsom’s appearance in Belém underscores that internal split.

By staying away entirely, however, the US hands influence to others. Politico reports that the European Union (EU) will now shoulder much of the pressure from developing countries seeking stronger commitments from wealthy nations. The EU remains firmly committed to ambitious targets shaped by the longstanding doomsday framing of climate politics.

For countries that align their planning with EU expectations, the consequences are already unfolding. South Africa offers a clear case.

Pretoria recently signed an agreement to access $13 billion in EU support for its green-energy transition, anchoring its new Integrated Resource Plan to a target of more than 40% renewable generation by 2039. On paper the goal satisfies global pressure. In practice the system is nowhere near ready.

Storage and transmission capacity are insufficient for that scale of renewables, and long-standing institutional weaknesses continue to delay implementation.

A clearer truth sits underneath the theatre of COP30. Climate ambition is easy to announce but far harder to deliver. Bill Gates hints at this in his call for a more practical, human-centred approach. The gap between global ambition and local capability is widening, and South Africa sits squarely in that tension.