Is This How the Ukraine War Ends?

For the first time since February of 2022, which arguably marks the start of the current ground war in Ukraine, there is a real, structured attempt on the table to end that war and restore peace to Europe.

A peace framework is now being discussed in Geneva, facilitated by the Trump administration. It initially contained the following twenty-eight-points:

1. Confirm Ukraine’s sovereignty in principle.

2. Conclude a comprehensive non-aggression agreement between Russia, Ukraine and European states, treating all disputes of the last 30 years as settled.

3. Expect Russia not to invade neighbours and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) not to expand further to the east.

4. Launch a United States (US)-mediated dialogue between Russia and NATO to resolve security issues, de-escalate, and enable future co-operation and economic development.

5. Give Ukraine security guarantees from the US and others;

• The US is compensated for providing the guarantee.
• If Ukraine invades Russia, it loses the guarantee.
• If Russia invades again, there will be a decisive co-ordinated military response and all sanctions and benefits of the deal are revoked.
• If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or Saint Petersburg without cause, the guarantee becomes invalid.

6. Limit the size of Ukraine’s armed forces to 600 000 personnel.

7. Have Ukraine write into its constitution that it will never join NATO, while NATO formally states that Ukraine will not be admitted.

8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.

9. Station European fighter jets in Poland as part of the new security posture.

10. Create a special US security guarantee for Ukraine with conditions

11. Recognise that Ukraine can join the European Union (EU) and give it short-term preferential access to the EU market while membership is considered.

12. Create a major reconstruction and investment package for Ukraine;

• Establish a Ukraine Development Fund for fast growing sectors such as technology, data centres, and artificial intelligence.
• Co-operate to rebuild and operate Ukraine’s gas pipelines and storage.
• Rehabilitate war damaged areas, rebuild cities, and housing.
• Invest in infrastructure and mineral extraction.
• Mobilise a special World Bank financing package.

13. Reinstate Russia in the global economy;

• Lift sanctions in stages, case by case.
• Sign a long-term US-Russia economic co-operation agreement for joint projects in energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, rare earths, and other areas.
• Invite Russia to rejoin the G8.

14. Use frozen Russian assets as follows;

• Invest $100 billion from frozen Russian funds in US-led projects to rebuild and invest in Ukraine.
• Give the US 50% of the profits from these investments.
• Add $100 billion from European funds for Ukraine’s reconstruction and unfreeze the rest of the Russian assets in Europe.
• Put remaining Russian funds into a joint US-Russia investment vehicle for specific projects, intended to tie both sides together and discourage future conflict.

15. Create a joint US-Russia working group on security to oversee and promote compliance with the agreement.

16. Have Russia enshrine in law a non-aggression policy toward Europe and Ukraine.

17. Extend and strengthen existing nuclear arms control and non-proliferation treaties between the US and Russia, including the main strategic arms treaty.

18. Confirm that Ukraine remains a non-nuclear state under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

19. Restart the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant under International Atomic Energy Agency supervision and share its electricity output equally between Russia and Ukraine.

20. Commit both sides to education and social programmes that promote tolerance, protect minorities, and reject extremist ideologies;

• Ukraine adopts EU rules on religious tolerance and linguistic minority rights.
• Both states remove discriminatory measures and guarantee rights for Ukrainian and Russian media and education.
• Both reject Nazi ideology and related activities.

21. Fix the territorial map;

• Treat Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk as de facto Russian, including by the US.
• Freeze the conflict in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia along the current front line, which becomes the de facto border.
• Russia gives up any other occupied areas outside those five regions.
• Ukraine withdraws from the remaining part of Donetsk it holds, which becomes a neutral demilitarised buffer zone legally recognised as Russian territory, with Russian troops staying outside that strip.

22. Both Russia and Ukraine pledge not to change these future borders by force. Security guarantees do not apply if either side breaks this pledge.

23. Russia promises not to block Ukraine from using the Dnipro river for trade and agrees on free shipment of grain through the Black Sea.

24. Establish a humanitarian committee to resolve outstanding human issues;

• Exchange all remaining prisoners and bodies on an all-for-all basis.
• Return all civilian detainees and hostages, including children.
• Run family reunification programmes.
• Support victims of the conflict.

25. Require Ukraine to hold national elections within 100 days of the agreement.

26. Grant full amnesty to all parties for actions during the war and waive future claims and complaints.

27. Make the agreement legally binding, with implementation monitored and guaranteed by a Peace Council headed by Donald Trump, which can impose sanctions for violations.

28. Once all parties sign and retreat to agreed positions, a ceasefire comes into force immediately and implementation begins.

The framework suggests three big things. It locks in all of Russia’s gains since 2014 and even gives Moscow extra parts of Donbas that Ukraine still holds, freezing the current front line in the south. It then forces Ukraine into formal neutrality outside NATO, offering instead a special Western security guarantee. Lastly, it caps Ukraine’s army at about 600 000 troops with limits on long-range weapons, while Russia keeps a much larger pool of soldiers and security forces without equivalent caps.

Today Russia still occupies about 20% of what Ukraine considers to be its territory, an area almost as large as South Africa’s Free State. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced and hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides have been killed or wounded. The war has settled into a grinding artillery and drone conflict amidst muddy trenches and woods.

The draft plan is a realistic option to put a stop to that. It gives Moscow the security guarantees it wanted. NATO would not expand further across its territory. NATO troops and bases would not be allowed on Ukrainian soil. Ukraine would be declared neutral but retain sovereign control over those parts of its territory that historical voting data shows are aligned against Russia.