Protests against the Iranian government have swept through Tehran and other Iranian cities this week. What began with merchants and university students in major urban centers has spread to smaller western cities, driven by a collapsing currency and soaring inflation that has impoverished ordinary Iranians. The trigger may be economic, but the underlying discontent runs far deeper.

Currency crises arise when countries run out of reserves and cannot pay for imports. Iran has the opposite problem: it holds over $120 billion in reserves, enough to cover 20 months of imports compared to the global average of nine months. But American sanctions have frozen most of those funds in bank accounts worldwide. The central bank can access perhaps a quarter whilst facing a $72 billion annual import bill. Unable to pay importers, the Iranian currency, the rial, keeps sinking.

Most of Iran's economic woes stem from mismanagement, but this currency crisis is uniquely imposed by sanctions. That creates a political trap: people are furious about lost purchasing power, but Tehran cannot fix it without Washington's co-operation.

Yet the economic pain has exposed a profound disconnect between the Iranian government and its people. Polling seen by The Common Sense reveals a nation fundamentally at odds with its leadership. Ninety-two percent of Iranians believe the country is heading in the wrong direction. Nearly two-thirds support negotiating with the United States, whilst a similar proportion want Iran to stop calling for Israel's destruction. Almost half of Iranians now lack strong religious convictions, and 72% believe the state should separate from religion, double the figure from a decade ago.

"The government in Tehran will have a very difficult time enforcing its ideology on its people," says Frans Cronje, noting that economic hardship has merely triggered a much deeper rupture between government and populace.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has struck an unusually contrite tone. "If people are dissatisfied, we are to blame," he told state television. "Do not look for America or anyone else to blame." State media has even been covering the protests, a departure from past practice.

Still, those familiar with Iran's internal dynamics caution against over-optimism. Sources told The Common Sense that these protests resemble previous flare-ups over recent decades, and the the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the regime's security apparatus, maintains an iron grip on the country.

The IRGC saw significant leadership changes last year, signalling a harder line. Most notably, Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi became deputy commander-in-chief of the IRGC this week. Vahidi previously led the Quds Force, the IRGC's elite unit responsible for foreign operations and support to proxy forces.

As Interior Minister in 2022, he oversaw the violent crackdown on nationwide protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini, a young woman who died in police custody after being arrested for improperly wearing her hijab. At least 551 people were killed in that suppression.

For South Africa, Iran's instability carries particular significance. The African National Congress (ANC) views Tehran as a struggle-era ally and fellow traveller in the Non-Aligned Movement, creating enduring reluctance to criticise the regime. South Africa has shielded Iran at the United Nations and International Atomic Energy Agency, often contradicting its own constitutional values to defend Tehran's nuclear ambitions and downplay its human rights record.

The relationship goes beyond sentiment. MTN's 49% stake in Irancell, a major Iranian telecommunications company, has been plagued by allegations of bribery and undue influence over South African foreign policy.

The timing of South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice has raised eyebrows. Days after filing the case, the ANC mysteriously settled a multi-million-rand debt. Analysts have speculated about possible Iranian support.

Should Tehran's regime falter or fall, South Africa would face a reckoning. Whatever leverage Iran holds over Pretoria, whether through MTN's investments, historical debts, or murkier financial arrangements, would diminish. The ANC's foreign policy, so often at odds with South African constitutional principles, might finally align more closely with the nation's stated values.

For now, though, the IRGC's grip appears firm, and South Africa's entanglement with Tehran endures.