The recent introduction into the United States Senate of the United States–South Africa Bilateral Relations Review Act is the latest in a series of actions from Washington that may culminate in sanctions being directed at individual South African political leaders and related institutions that Washington believes have acted in a manner that threatens American national security interests.

Yesterday The Common Sense reported that the bill, introduced by Louisiana Senator John Kennedy, would direct the Secretary of State, the Pentagon, and other agencies to produce a detailed evaluation of whether South Africa’s conduct harms United States (US) security interests. Within the review, President Trump must certify Pretoria’s alignment and submit a classified roll of South African officials and African National Congress (ANC) figures eligible for Global Magnitsky Act (this is an act that authorizes the US President to impose targeted sanctions on foreign individuals and entities responsible for significant human rights abuses and corruption anywhere in the world) sanctions.

The bill, which mirrors a similar piece of legislation previously introduced in the House of Representatives, may mark an important nuance in American policy towards South Africa that will seek to avoid causing damage to the country and its economy while at the same time taking action against individuals deemed responsible for threatening US interests.

Senator Kennedy’s bill landed as a South African trade delegation departed for Washington this week with a brief to further negotiations towards a trade and investment pact with America. The Common Sense previously reported that a basic trade pact, including reduced tariff levels, was possible although this would fall far short of the scale of a deal that could be struck if key political and foreign policy disputes between the two countries were resolved.

The Common Sense has been told that the delegation that departed this week does not have a mandate to discuss those critical political or foreign policy questions. The Common Sense has also been told that the impasse with the Americans is causing considerable frustration in both South Africa’s Cabinet and its ANC party given the understanding that a large-scale deal with the US could help South Africa escape the economic rut in which it remains trapped.

In an editorial The Common Sense has previously argued what an expansive deal should entail and why it is in the interests of both parties to pursue one.

Considerable efforts have been mounted by private and some government actors on both sides of the Atlantic to secure a substantive trade and investment deal. One of the latest efforts in that regard is that the Hudson Institute, a Washington think-tank, has offered to host South African President Cyril Ramaphosa to make the case for South Africa and answer questions from influential Washington actors. The Hudson platform would allow South Africa’s President a uniquely influential stage from which to win support for a trade deal after the catastrophic Oval Office meeting in May which severely dented South Africa’s already bruised reputation in Washington. However, speaking to The Common Sense this week the Institute said it was still awaiting a reply from Pretoria.

The US finds itself somewhat behind the curve in terms of fixed investment into Africa relative to its key global rivals whilst South Africa has faced a decade-long investment drought recording gross fixed capital formation levels at just half the rate of its emerging market peers. South Africa also possesses important strategic geography with the Simonstown naval base being one of three points that anchor the Indo-Pacific as well as serving as the backdoor into the South Atlantic.

Key private and government actors with knowledge of events between Pretoria and Washington remain hopeful that a transformative trade and investment pact might be struck between the two countries, but have stressed that South Africa would have to appear in Washington with a substantive plan and the mandate to discuss and resolve all points of difference.