South Africa has just had a record-breaking harvest with over 21 million tonnes of grain in the 2025-26 season, the biggest on record. At the same time consumer food price inflation slowed to 0.6% in July, down from 1.4% in June, the lowest since 2010.

Agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo walks Gabriel Makin through why the crop is so big, how a farm-gate price takes two to four months to show up on the shelf, and why food inflation in 2027 will be closer to 5% to 6% if El Niño lands.