In this episode of Makin Sense, one of The Common Sense's two flagship podcasts, Gareth van Onselen joins Gabriel Makin for a rare inside view of the machinery of opinion research and why getting it right matters for the health of South Africa’s democracy. Gareth van Onsellen is the CEO of Victory Research, one of South Africa's top polling firms.

For viewers who only know Gabriel as the host of Common Sense podcasts this episode reveals that he also runs the research side of South Africa's Social Research Foundation or the SRF. The SRF is the poll group that called South Africa's 2024 national election result to within a percentage point. Gareth and Gabriel talk about the state of public opinion research in South Africa, how political parties misunderstand data, why polling failure can occur, and what high quality polling fieldwork really looks like. Gareth also unpacks the incentives that shape media narratives, explains why accurate data on voter opinion is rare, and reflects on the future of political analysis in a country where trust in information may be eroding.

Chapters

00:00 Understanding Polling: Myths and Realities

09:48 Polling Methodologies: How They Work

19:46 Interpreting Polling Data: Trends vs. Predictions

29:09 Recent Poll Results: Insights and Implications

30:25 Helen Zille's Impact on the DA

35:18 The Fragmentation of African Nationalism

39:48 Public Sentiment on ANC Policies 44:57 The Role of the Middle Class in South African Politics