Frans Cronje explains why his firm was more sanguine about the Iran war than much of the media commentary, and why it believed the conflict was likely to end through a mix of American strategic withdrawal and controlled Iranian de-escalation. Cronje walks through the six scenarios his firm developed for clients, the pressure created by US midterm politics, the weakness in American consumer sentiment, the strain on Iran’s oil revenues, and why oil, currencies, and markets have held up better than many expected. He also explains why the war may have permanently shifted the global oil balance of power away from the Middle East and toward the United States