Why South Africa's Middle Class Will Be Fine

Frans Cronje explains why South Africa's middle class will be fine.

Frans Cronje

-5 min

In this episode Frans Cronje looks ahead to what the fallout of the Phala Phala debacle may be for South African politics and what the implications may be for people. Frans lays out the choices ahead for the African National Congress (ANC), Democratic Alliance, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) and how the current questions surrounding Cyril Ramaphosa's future may be resolved by the parties. After this he uses data to outline his theory of balkanisation and how the middle class of South Africa is likely to be completely protected from even the "doomsday coalition" of the ANC, EFF, and MK. He argues that the data on the number of police officers against the number of private security officers, demonstrates that the state has already ceded its monopoly on the use of violence. That private actors are almost entirely able to fulfill the state's obligation to maintain law and order in society demonstrates just how capable private actors in South Africa are. Frans uses this theory to postulate that there is essentially no challenge private actors in South Africa cannot overcome and that, therefore, there is no reason to assume that even the most rapacious governing coalition will be able to harm South Africa's established middle classes.

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