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An analysis of municipal by-elections since the 2021 local government elections (LGE) shows that the African National Congress (ANC) could win about 37% of the national vote in the 2026 LGE, about ten points below what it won in 2021.

This is according to seasoned electoral and political analyst Gareth van Onselen, who writes a political blog, Inside Politics.

Van Onselen analysed by-elections held between the 2011 and 2016 LGEs and between the 2016 and 2021 LGEs. Van Onselen’s analysis found that the ANC’s performance in by-elections leading up to the relevant LGE were an “extremely good” predictor of how the ANC would perform in that LGE.

The ANC is the only party where this analysis can be done convincingly because it is the only party which stands in nearly every by-election held between LGEs, which means that there is a wealth of data with which to work (there have already been over 400 by-elections held since the 2021 LGE, which means there are a significant number of data points).

Using ANC by-election performances since the 2021 LGE, Van Onselen’s statistical analysis shows that the ANC could capture about 37% of the vote. In the 2021 LGE the party won 45.6% of the vote.

A decline of around ten percentage points for the ANC from its 2021 LGE performance would be in line with national electoral trends and polling data.

However, the party won’t suffer a uniform decline of ten points: its support levels are likely to fall by more than that in the country’s metros and in KwaZulu-Natal.

In other provinces, particularly the rural Eastern Cape and Limpopo, its support levels are likely to remain relatively steady and will fall by a smaller degree. The 2026 LGE is therefore likely to confirm that the ANC is now a predominantly rural party, with a diminishing share of its support coming from cities, where most of South Africa’s wealth and jobs are.