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The Common Sense can today reveal that support for the African National Congress (ANC) is only two points above its lowest-ever polling number, which was recorded during the VAT dispute with the Democratic Alliance (DA) last year.

The ANC has the support of 34% of likely voters in South Africa, with the DA on 27%. The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) is on 15%, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has the support of 7% of likely voters.

This is according to polling conducted by The Common Sense, in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation (SRF). It surveyed 2 214 people and asked them who they would vote for if a local government election had to be held that day. It had a margin of error of 2.1% and was conducted between 8 July and 31 July and used a turnout model of 53%.

The only other parties that polled above the margin of error were the Inkatha Freedom Party (5%) and the Freedom Front Plus (3%).

The ANC’s polling number was the second-lowest it has ever polled. The only time it polled lower was in the first quarter of 2025, at the height of the VAT dispute, when it polled at 32%, after it had tried to push through a two-point increase in that tax rate.

Compared to the first-quarter poll conducted in March this year by the SRF and The Common Sense, the ANC has declined from 39% to 34%. The DA also saw a small decline, from 28% to 27%.

Both the MKP and the EFF saw increases, with the MKP going from having 10% of the support of likely voters to 15%, with the EFF growing slightly, from 6% to 7%.

Readers should note that these shifts are chiefly within or close to the margin of error of the survey and therefore should be interpreted with caution. They should also be aware that the data are broadly in line with the overall drift of polls conducted over the past 12 months.

The chart below shows the data for the ANC, DA, MKP, and EFF since the beginning of last year.

The Common Sense deputy editor Marius Roodt said, “In many respects the polling shows that South Africa’s political balance is actually quite stable in the aftermath of the ANC’s loss of its majority. No party or alliance of parties is clearly making much progress in terms of winning public support. This suggests that the more significant South African trend of a fracturing, where communities increasingly take charge of the things that politicians are failing to do, is the trend shaping the future.”

Read more on the enclavisation phenomenon here.