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Could the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) be the biggest party in every municipality in KwaZulu-Natal in the 2026 local government elections (LGE), being held on Wednesday?

Using the 2024 national elections as a guide, the party is well set to be the biggest party in most municipalities in the province and could repeat that feat in much of southern Mpumalanga.

The chart below shows the MKP performance in municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga in 2024.

Of KwaZulu-Natal’s 44 municipalities, the MKP was the biggest party in 35 and the second biggest in the other nine. In the nine municipalities where it came second, it was beaten by the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) in seven and it was beaten in two by the African National Congress (ANC).

In addition, it won more than 50% of the vote in 14 of 44 municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal.

In Mpumalanga’s 17 municipalities, the MKP came first in two municipalities and second in seven. The ANC was the biggest party in all of Mpumalanga’s other 15 municipalities.

It also won above 50% in one municipality in Mpumalanga: Mkhondo (Piet Retief).

If the MKP manages to do as well in next week’s election as it did in 2024 at national level, then what happened in municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga in 2024 could happen on Wednesday, making the MKP well placed to be the leading party in much of KwaZulu-Natal and southern Mpumalanga.

But is the MKP likely to replicate its 2024 performance?

According to polling from the Social Research Foundation (SRF) and The Common Sense, the party is holding at levels, nationally, similar to what it had in the 2024 election.

The chart below shows the MKP’s support levels nationally in 2024 and in the last three rounds of polling conducted by the SRF and The Common Sense, as well as the polling average.

The chart below shows the MKP’s support levels in eThekwini in 2024 and in the last three rounds of polling conducted by the SRF and The Common Sense, as well as the polling average.

The polling therefore suggests that the MKP’s remarkable performance in 2024 was not a once-off event, although it is polling slightly below the support levels it won in 2024. Nevertheless, two years after its emergence as a major political force, the party appears to have retained much of the support that made it the largest party in KwaZulu-Natal and a serious challenger to the ANC in parts of Mpumalanga.

There are, however, important differences between national and local elections. Voter turnout, the strength of local candidates, and the ability of established parties to mobilise their supporters will all influence the outcome.

Nevertheless, if the MKP can reproduce anything close to its 2024 performance, it could emerge as the biggest party in almost every municipality in KwaZulu-Natal, and perhaps all of them, and could secure majorities in a significant number of those. It could also displace the ANC as the leading party across a number of councils in southern Mpumalanga.

The MKP may be on the verge of translating its extraordinary national election breakthrough into a formidable presence in local government, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal.