Great News for the ANC: Voters Express Joy at its GNU Performance Opening a Route Back to 50%+

According to a new poll conducted by South Africa’s Social Research Foundation, African National Congress (ANC) voters are very pleased at how the party has performed in the Government of National Unity (GNU).

The November survey* asked ANC voters whether they thought the party was performing very well, quite well, quite poorly, or very poorly in the GNU.

Almost two-thirds, at 63%, answered that they thought their party was doing very well or quite well. Only 14% answered that it was doing quite or very poorly. The balance was undecided.

Almost more important is that exactly 50% of voters who support its rival – the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) – thought the ANC was doing well in the GNU, as did just under a third of uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) voters. Potentially, therefore, there is around 10% of the electorate in the EFF and MK that are open to a return to the ANC.

Amongst black voters, over half felt the ANC was doing well in the GNU compared with under a third who did not.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense that: “the data is very important because it suggests that there is more than sufficient nostalgia for the ANC within its major rivals for the party to aspire to regain its national majority should it continue to perform well in the GNU and bring some life back to the economy and the job market...in fact I would say that if the ANC picks the right leader to succeed Mr Ramaphosa and the economic growth rate moves towards 3%, my bet would be for the ANC to get above 50% in the 2029 national election.”

*The Social Research Foundation’s Q4 2025 Market Survey was commissioned by the Foundation and conducted by Victory Research among 1 002 registered voters between 27 October and 14 November 2025 using telephonic CATI interviews. A single-frame random digit-dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection, with national sim card penetration exceeding 250%, more than 90% of adults owning a phone, and mobile networks covering 99.8% of the population, giving universal practical coverage. The sample was fully weighted to match the national registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 52.8%. The poll carries a 4.0% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, with a design effect of 1.762.