Is Patrice Motsepe distancing himself from a bid to become the leader of the African National Congress (ANC)?

Recent news reports have suggested that Patrice Motsepe will not stand for the leadership of the ANC. However, those reports appear to be misleading and based on a misrepresentation of comments he made during the results presentation of African Rainbow Minerals (ARM), where he serves as non-executive chairman.

The remarks in question were reported by MiningMX, an online publication focused on the mining industry. During the presentation Motsepe was asked directly about his political ambitions and the speculation surrounding a possible ANC leadership bid.

According to MiningMX, Motsepe said, “As has always been our position, the best place for us to play and make that contribution is outside politics. I said this 20 years ago and I said it five years ago. The minute you run for votes, you deviate from the broader objectives and the broader benefit for all South Africans.”

He also addressed the PM27 website, which was recently launched and has been interpreted by some observers as the beginning of a Motsepe campaign for ANC leader. Motsepe has not endorsed the site. Commenting on it at the ARM presentation he said, “'PM27' — that could also mean post meridian.”

Speaking about reports that he might be funding political campaign activities, Motsepe reportedly added, “It’s false, it’s unfounded. I would never go and fund people to buy [campaign caps].”

Taken together, these statements have been interpreted by some commentators as evidence that Motsepe is distancing himself from a leadership run. Yet a careful reading suggests something more limited.

Motsepe did not explicitly state that he will not run for ANC leader. Rather, he said that in the past his answer had been no, that running would be a distraction from his work, and that he is not currently engaged in narrowly defined campaign activities. Those statements are accurate but none of them amount to a definitive denial.

It is also important to recognise the position the question placed him in. ANC rules prevent a candidate from being formally declared before the party’s branch nomination process begins. Any potential candidate therefore has strong incentives to avoid explicit declarations at this stage.

At the same time, Motsepe’s political allies would likely still be assessing whether there is a viable path to victory at the ANC’s national conference scheduled for December 2027.

For these reasons The Common Sense prior assessment remains unchanged. Motsepe is likely to run if his camp concludes that a credible path to victory exists through the party conference. Should that occur, he would remain a formidable contender for the leadership of the ANC and, potentially, the presidency of South Africa, with the prospect of pressing reforms aimed at lifting the country’s economic growth rate.