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News24, in conjunction with SABI, a London- and Johannesburg-based strategy and consultancy group, released a series of in-depth polls over the weekend, which were conducted in August and September, examining the state of play nationally and in four metros – Johannesburg, Tshwane, eThekwini, and Cape Town – ahead of the local government elections, scheduled for November.

The Common Sense, in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation (SRF), has also conducted two rounds of polling this year, in March and July (with a third round due to come out shortly before next month’s election).

The Common Sense and SRF also polled voters nationally and in three of the four metros where SABI and News24 polled people, with Cape Town being the metro The Common Sense/SRF did not poll.

Despite having different methodologies both sets of polling had fairly similar findings.

Nationally The Common Sense/SRF’s two sets of polling in March and July had the African National Congress (ANC) at 39% and 34%, respectively, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) was on 28% and 27%. The News24/SABI poll had the ANC on 32% and the DA on 25%, giving the ANC average support of 35% and the DA 27%.

Numbers for other parties were similar although the News24/SABI poll had the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) polling slightly higher than the two The Common Sense/SRF polls had the party at.

The chart below shows results from the two The Common Sense/SRF polls and the News24/SABI poll, and the average across the three.

The Common Sense/SRF polling on eThekwini had similar results to News24/SABI on the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), the DA, and the EFF in the city, but there were fairly wide differences in what the three polls measured the ANC and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at. However, this is expected as the ANC comes apart, with voters looking away from the ANC, to other parties, and back again. One can see this in polling from the other metros too.

The key finding from the three polls is that the MKP will be the biggest party in eThekwini, but will likely fall short of a majority.

The chart below shows the party results across the three polls and the party averages.

The findings in Johannesburg showed a similar phenomenon, both The Common Sense/SRF and News24/SABI polling had similar findings for most of the parties polled, but there were fairly wide variations in the ANC’s share, ranging from 30% in the March The Common Sense/SRF poll, to 18% in the July follow-up poll, and 20% in the News24/SABI poll.

Again, this is to be expected as the ANC breaks up and former supporters look to other parties and sometimes return to the ANC.

Both The Common Sense/SRF and News24/SABI poll show that the DA is likely to be the biggest party in Johannesburg by some distance, but may not have the numbers to form a workable coalition in the city, to allow Helen Zille to become mayor.

The chart below shows the results from the three polls in Johannesburg, and the party averages.

Tshwane is the metro with the most variation in polling results although the broad pattern they show is similar across the three polls and the average result – the DA is likely to be the biggest party in the metro, with the ANC behind. In more recent polls, ANC support has dropped sharply, but again, this is to be expected, with ANC supporters looking away from the party, and then back, as the party fragments.

The chart below shows the results of the three polls in Tshwane, along with the party averages.

Taken together, the three sets of polling tell a remarkably consistent story. The ANC is losing ground nationally and across the major metros, while the DA is emerging as the largest party in Johannesburg and Tshwane and the MKP is dominant in eThekwini. The precise numbers will continue to move as voters shift between parties in the final weeks before the election, but the direction is clear. South Africa is heading into an election defined by fragmentation and difficult coalition arithmetic. The value of having multiple independent polls is that, despite methodological differences, they are increasingly pointing to the same political reality.