A note by advisory firm Frans Cronje Private Clients says the January 8 statement of the African National Congress (ANC) points strongly to policy continuity rather than a decisive reform turn, despite President Cyril Ramaphosa presenting the address as a moment of “decisive action” to fix local government and transform the economy.

The note argues that the January statement, issued annually on the anniversary of the founding of the ANC, remains valuable as a guide to the ANC leadership’s thinking and hence the likely policy trajectory of the government, but says it “largely reiterates long-standing commitments” without setting out a materially new policy route or an execution framework capable of overcoming structural constraints.

On growth and economic policy, the note says the ANC again leans on infrastructure investment, industrial policy, black economic empowerment, land reform, and a social compact as the main engines of growth. The note describes these as familiar themes that have appeared repeatedly over the past decade, including recurring claims that the economy is “turning a corner”.

The note says the statement offers no substantive policy reroute to explain why outcomes in 2026 should differ from the past decade of low growth, which the ANC itself acknowledges. It adds that private investment is invited, but only within a framework of “strategic state ownership” and regulatory control, with limited clarity on how risk, pricing, and policy stability will be improved.

On service delivery, the note says the statement correctly identifies local government collapse as a “binding constraint” on economic activity and social stability, but argues the remedies are largely recycled. It points to commitments such as improved billing, revenue collection, infrastructure maintenance, and ethical administration, while warning the ANC statement does not set out enforceable mechanisms, fiscal trade-offs, or institutional reforms capable of overcoming entrenched capacity failures.

On strategic direction, the note says the ANC frames the country’s challenges as the product of “anti-transformation forces” rather than policy design failures. While weaknesses in governance and delivery are acknowledged, it says no ideological or policy recalibration is offered, and there is no strong indication of a shift toward market-led reform, deregulation, or a more effective and efficient state.

The note also focuses on the Government of National Unity (GNU), saying the January 8 statement explicitly commits the ANC to pursue its ideological objectives “even under” the GNU. From this perspective, it argues, the GNU is not seen by the party as an inflection point for a dramatic policy reset, but as a tactical governing arrangement that enables continuity rather than profound reform.

On corruption, the note says organisational renewal, ethics training, and the enforcement of discipline are again emphasised, but argues these commitments are familiar and have historically failed to prevent governance breakdown or corruption scandals. It adds that the absence of measurable benchmarks or external accountability mechanisms limits confidence that renewal efforts will materially alter institutional performance.

On foreign policy, the note says South Africa’s activist posture is reaffirmed, including solidarity positions that may complicate relations with key Western trade and investment partners. It adds that comments on the United States are “the harshest we have yet read” and coincide with naval exercises with Russia, China, and Iran, which it describes as a clear message to Washington. The note says no compelling mitigation strategy is offered for potential geopolitical, trade, or broader economic risks.

Looking to the next local government elections (which must be held by January 2027), the note says the statement frames the contest as decisive for restoring ANC authority, but stresses that the emphasis is on campaign mobilisation rather than policy or economic reform. It warns that if mobilisation extends to populism, South Africa’s country risk may rise as campaigning gathers pace.

The note concludes that the January 8 statement provides few reasons to doubt that 2026 will see investor confidence remain subdued, fixed investment remain near present lows, job growth remain subdued, and economic growth come in at the bottom end of emerging market averages. As a consequence, “poll data will reflect the ANC at around 40% or a bit below” into the local government elections.