The Democratic Alliance (DA) faces a paradox in Johannesburg: while a significant 84% of voters* believe that service delivery where they live would improve if the DA came to power, the party is struggling to convert this sentiment into votes. The numbers are striking when broken down by race.

• •Among black voters, 80% believe conditions in the suburb they live in would improve under DA governance.
• •This figure drops to 43% for coloured voters, rises to 64% among Indian voters, and soars to 97% among white voters.
• •However, when it comes to actual voting intentions, only 39% of likely voters in Johannesburg intend to cast their ballot for the DA.

Breaking the data down further reveals an even sharper contrast.

• •Among black voters, only 25% intend to vote for the DA, despite the high level of faith in improved services.
• •For coloured voters, 55% would vote for the DA, and so too 64% of Indian voters.
• •The highest support comes from white voters, with 82% intending to vote for the DA.

This presents a conundrum for the DA. The party has clearly made an important breakthrough on the question of its practical ability to deliver services, with many voters across various racial groups convinced that its leadership would improve their daily lives. Yet the party struggles to translate this approval into tangible electoral support, particularly among black voters, who make up a significant portion of Johannesburg’s electorate.

The issue reveals a deep disconnect between perceptions of service delivery and political allegiance. Likely important in explaining the conundrum is the extent of racial nationalist incitement in the media and on social media, directed at the idea that the DA is intrinsically hostile to black communities.

As Johannesburg moves toward the next local government elections, the DA’s success will depend on more than its ability to offer better services – it has likely already won that battle. The battle now is to overcome two other obstacles: entrenched political loyalties and newly manufactured divides.

*The Social Research Foundation Q1 2026 Market Survey was commissioned by the Social Research Foundation supported by The Common Sense and conducted by Victory Research using a nationally representative telephonic CATI survey of registered voters (N=2 222), with metro samples upsized to over 500 respondents each in Johannesburg (n=503), Tshwane (n=510), and eThekwini (n=503). Fieldwork was conducted between 16 February 2026 and 6 March 2026 using a single-frame random digit dialling sampling design that draws from all possible South African mobile numbers, ensuring equal probability of selection and near-universal coverage given SIM penetration above 250%, more than 90% adult phone ownership, and mobile network coverage of 99.8% of the population. Respondents were screened to include registered voters only, and turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on likelihood indicators, with the primary model assuming turnout of 56.0%. Data were weighted to ensure the national sample reflects the demographic profile of the registered voter population across language, age, race, gender, location (urban/rural), education, and income, while metro samples were weighted to the demographic composition of voters in each metro. Results are reported at a 95% confidence level with a design effect (DEFF) of 1.762, producing margins of error of 2.1% nationally and 4.4% for each metro sample.