KZN GPU Faces Motion of No Confidence Today

The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK) is reportedly bringing a motion of no confidence (MONC) in the government of provincial unity (GPU) in KwaZulu-Natal today.

The GPU holds a narrow majority in the provincial legislature, with the governing coalition holding 41 seats in the 80-member body.

The GPU’s member parties are the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), with 15 seats, the African National Congress (ANC), which has 14 seats, the Democratic Alliance (11 seats), and the National Freedom Party (NFP), which has one seat.

MK and the Economic Freedom Fighters hold 39 seats between them (MK has 37 and the EFF two seats).

MK has called for a secret ballot – it remains to be seen whether this will be allowed by the legislature. If a secret ballot is held then it is possible that MK sympathisers in the ANC could support the MONC and topple the GPU.

However, even without a secret ballot the GPU could be in trouble. The NFP may also support the MONC.

But the NFP itself is split. Party leader Ivan Barnes is reportedly keen to side with MK, but the party’s sole member of the provincial legislature, Mbali Shinga, who also serves as MEC for social development, has said the GPU: “remains stable”. If the NFP were to defect to MK, the legislative is deadlocked at 40-40.

But for an MONC to succeed in a South African legislature it must be supported by a clear majority of its members, which an alliance of MK, the EFF, and the NFP will not have. But this will leave the legislature deadlocked.

A deadlocked legislature will have a number of consequences, one of which is an eventual early election in the province.

However, even if the GPU falls in KwaZulu-Natal this is unlikely to affect the balance of power in the government of national unity, with that governing coalition enjoying a much larger majority in the national legislature than the GPU has in KwaZulu-Natal.