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In South Africa, it is more dangerous to be a politician than a police officer.

A politician in South Africa is murdered at about twice the rate of a police officer, and roughly two and a half times the rate of an ordinary citizen.

The national murder rate averaged near 45 per 100 000 people over the five years to 2023/24. This means that 45 out of every 100 000 people in the country are murdered in a year. Calculations by The Common Sense show that police officers face a higher rate, at roughly 60 per 100 000. But in a startling finding the rate for politicians stands at near 118 per 100 000 — or almost three times the national rate.

See the table below:

Around 90 police officers are murdered in a typical year, compared with about a dozen politicians. But there are far more police officers than politicians. South Africa has roughly 150 000 police officers, but only about 10 000 municipal councillors, who make up the overwhelming majority of elected representatives.

The Common Sense's calculations come after a spate of assassinations of politicians.

Earlier this week The Common Sense reported on the assassination of a DA candidate, an ANC councillor and an MKP organiser, within just six days of each other.

Research by GI-TOC — the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime, a Geneva-based network that monitors organised crime — defines a political killing as the targeted, paid killing of someone for their role in public life for strategic rather than ideological reasons.

GI-TOC has tracked these killings for South Africa since 2000, recording 488 between 2000 and 2023, and 31 in 2023 alone.

The data shows that these killings often fall in municipal-election years. The likely reason for this is that in many municipalities a council seat is one of the few routes into the middle class, with the contracts and patronage that come with office. South Africa's next local election is on 4 November 2026.