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Polls conducted in July by The Common Sense in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation* found that Patrice Motsepe remains more than twice as popular as any of his party rivals to succeed Cyril Ramaphosa when the African National Congress (ANC) meets to pick a new leader in December 2027.

Respondents were told that Cyril Ramaphosa’s term was coming to an end and that the ANC would soon hold an elective conference. They were asked who they would like to see as the new ANC leader.

Among all respondents, 37% said Patrice Motsepe. That was followed by Fikile Mbalula at 17%, and Paul Mashatile at 10%. No other figure was in double digits.

Among black respondents, the figures were 41%, 21%, and 11%.

Among ANC supporters, the figures were 43%, 23%, and 8%.

Among Democratic Alliance supporters, these were 33%, 12%, and 6%.

The Common Sense has been tracking Motsepe’s data since the fourth quarter of 2025.

At that time, he polled at 23% and Mbalula at 19% among all voters.

In the first quarter of 2026, as the public came to think Motsepe may be running, his popularity spiked, reaching 39%, while Mbalula dropped to 14%.

The chart below sets out the data.

“That is essentially what has held into the second quarter of 2026,” said Marius Roodt, who is an editor at The Common Sense .

The Common Sense has previously advised that Motsepe should be thought of as a candidate for the leadership of the ANC, and that if his crew can see a way through what will be the very corrupt and violent 2027 ANC leadership conference, he may run. Should he win, it is plausible that he drives an ANC turnaround.

None of the other likely candidates have the ability to arrest the ANC’s descent. The Common Sense polled the party’s national support at 34% in the second quarter of 2026 – just two points above its all-time record low. In Johannesburg, it polled under 20%.

* The Social Research Foundation’s Q2 2026 Market Survey was conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research among 2 214 registered voters between 8 and 31 July 2026 using telephonic CATI interviews. National results are based on the full sample of 2 214 respondents. Metro results are based on samples of 504 respondents in Johannesburg, 508 in Tshwane, and 500 in eThekwini. A single frame random digit dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, more than 90.0% of adults own a phone, and mobile networks cover 99.8% of the population, providing universal practical coverage. The samples were fully weighted to match the relevant registered voter populations across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 56.0%. The national results carry a margin of error of 2.1% at a 95.0% confidence level, while the Johannesburg, Tshwane, and eThekwini results each carry a margin of error of 4.4%. The survey has a design effect of 3.7938.