EXCLUSIVE: Motsepe SA’s Preferred Choice for Next ANC Leader

The Common Sense can exclusively reveal that businessman Patrice Motsepe is South Africa’s first choice to become the next leader of the African National Congress (ANC).

This is according to new polling conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF)* this month.

When asked who they preferred as the next leader of South Africa’s biggest party 23% of all South Africans said they preferred Motsepe with 19% saying they would want ANC secretary-general, Fikile Mbalula, as the next leader of the party.

In third place, and with 13%, South Africans chose Paul Mashatile, the party’s current deputy leader. In fourth place, 9% said they preferred minister of electricity, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa. In fifth place, with 4%, was suspended police minister, Senzo Mchunu.

Sixteen percent of those surveyed said they did not support any of those candidates as the next leader of the ANC with 17% either refusing to answer the question or saying they were undecided.

Marius Roodt, deputy editor of The Common Sense, said if the ANC were to elect Motsepe as the next head of the party, it could have a realistic shot at once again winning more than 50% of the national vote.

“Motsepe is clearly a popular choice as the next ANC leader. He has been a successful businessman and he is not tainted by the ANC’s various corruption scandals and misgovernance. However, it is unclear whether he would be willing to go through the mud-wrestling match which ANC elective conferences generally are. It is likely that Motsepe would only accept nomination for leadership if he can run unopposed. It remains to be seen whether the ANC would be willing to do this, but it is probably their best chance of once again winning a parliamentary majority,” Roodt said.

*The Social Research Foundation’s Q4 2025 Market Survey was commissioned by the Foundation and conducted by Victory Research among 1 002 registered voters between 27 October and 14 November 2025 using telephonic CATI interviews. A single-frame random digit-dialling design was used, drawing from all possible South African mobile numbers to ensure that every number had an equal probability of selection, with national sim card penetration exceeding 250%, more than 90% of adults owning a phone, and mobile networks covering 99.8% of the population, giving universal practical coverage. The sample was fully weighted to match the national registered voter population across all key demographics, including language, age, race, gender, education, income, and urban or rural location. Turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on questions measuring their likelihood of participation, with the primary turnout model set at 52.8%. The poll carries a 4.0% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, with a design effect of 1.762.