Two by-elections were held in the Western Cape yesterday, with the African National Congress (ANC) defending a seat in Cape Town but losing another to the Patriotic Alliance (PA) in Oudtshoorn.

In the first by-election, held in Dunoon in Cape Town, the ANC saw its majority slashed, winning 47% of the vote against the 60% it had won in the 2021 local government elections (LGE). The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) won 29%, an almost ten-point jump from the 20% it won in the 2021 LGE. The Democratic Alliance (DA) won 16%, doubling its vote share from the 2021 LGE.

In Oudtshoorn the PA took a ward off the ANC.

In 2021 the ANC had won the ward in a crowded field. It had secured the ward with only 22% of the vote, but this was enough to give it the victory. There had been five other parties which had won more than 5% of the vote in the ward in the 2021 LGE. The DA had won 21% and the PA had managed 12%. The rest of the vote was split between three local parties – the Independent Civic Organisation (ICOSA) with 20%, the Oudtshoorn Gemeenskap Inisiatief (6%), and Suid-Kaap Saamstaan (6%).

Yesterday the PA nearly quadrupled its vote share, winning 44% of the vote, enough to give it the ward. The ANC saw its vote share also grow markedly, to 35%, but this was not enough for it to retain the ward. ICOSA won 21%. The DA and the other two local parties did not field candidates in the by-election.

There are a number of important electoral signposts to take note of from these two by-elections. From Cape Town, the ANC’s decline and the EFF and DA’s rise are noteworthy. If the ANC’s drop in support in the by-election is replicated in the next LGE it could potentially be reduced to being a 10% party in Cape Town (in 2021 it won 18% across the municipality). By the same token the EFF could well start challenging the ANC in the city if its support increases by the same amount. The DA doubled its vote share, both in percentage point terms and raw numbers, in an area of the city where it has traditionally done poorly, which bodes well for the party ahead of the 2026 LGE.

Meanwhile, the PA continues its march across the rural Western Cape, with yesterday’s by-election being the second ward it has taken off the ANC in Oudtshoorn since the 2021 LGE. It is also the seventh by-election the PA has won in the rural Western Cape in the past year. Both the DA and the ANC will be concerned about the PA’s continued success in the rural parts of the province. However, it remains to be seen whether this momentum can be maintained by the PA when it has to contest a nationwide municipal election, and cannot focus its attention on a particular ward in by-elections.