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The Democratic Alliance (DA) is now the single-biggest party across South Africa’s major urban centres, while the African National Congress (ANC) remains dominant outside them.

If South Africa’s eight metropolitan municipalities, Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Cape Town, Buffalo City, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Mangaung, were treated as a single political unit, the DA would have emerged as the largest party in the 2024 election.

Outside the metros, however, the picture is somewhat different. The ANC remains ahead, albeit without a majority, followed by the DA and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) in the country’s other areas, which each have half the vote share of the ANC.

The chart below shows support for South Africa’s largest parties across the eight metros and outside them.

This urban divide matters because the metros are South Africa’s economic engines. They generate most of the country’s economic output, account for a large share of formal employment, and contribute disproportionately to personal income tax, despite containing only about 40% of the population.

The chart below shows the metros’ share of South Africa’s population, GDP, formal employment, and assessed personal income tax.

The key distinction at play is that urban centres hold South Africa's middle classes and aspirant middle classes and are generally more prosperous on a per capita basis than the rest of the country. The DA is in practice a middle class party and that is reflected in its relatively strong metro standing.