US Stance on Venezuela Holds Warnings for SA

Washington’s ongoing confrontation with Venezuela is a reminder of how far the Trump administration is prepared to go when it feels defied, and why South Africa cannot be complacent that higher tariff rates are the worst it might suffer from the American administration.

The United States (US) has moved from narrow sanctions on Venezuelan officials to a broad campaign that combines financial pressure, legal action, and military posturing. Under President Donald Trump the squeeze intensified, with seven executive orders on Venezuela by the end of his first term. The most severe blocked Caracas from the US financial system and barred American citizens and companies from buying Venezuelan debt, measures that were kept in place under Joe Biden and into Trump’s second term.

Formally the pressure is justified by claims that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is tied to drug trafficking and rigged elections that suppress democratic opposition. Washington also accuses him of leading the Cartel de los Soles and has considered designating it a terrorist organisation, which US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has said would give Washington wider tools to combat the group.

There are implications in this for South Africa. If relations continue to deteriorate, Washington may be willing to move beyond posturing and tariffs and target South Africa’s access to capital markets. It may also direct sanctions against South African individuals and institutions deemed hostile to the US. Further measures such as restrictions against buying South African debt would sharply raise borrowing costs and tighten the fiscal noose around an already strained state.

Experts told The Common Sense that South Africa cannot be complacent. While the threat of sanctions from the US has not been exercised to date, this could change quickly, especially if the White House feels that South Africa continues to position itself as an adversary of the US.