Yesterday, The Common Sense examined the economic reasons behind the decline in electoral support for the African National Congress (ANC), showing how weakening business confidence, falling investment, and slowing economic growth contributed to the party’s defeat in the 2026 local government elections. This analysis follows that argument by examining how slowing economic growth affected living standards and service delivery, and how these changes contributed to the ANC’s electoral decline.

The first chart shows how economic growth strengthened between 1994 and 2008 but slowed sharply thereafter. Over the same period, ANC support rose to 66.0% in the 2006 local government elections before falling to 31.0% in 2026.

Economic growth, in turn, determines the rate at which living standards improve. The next chart shows how real GDP per person rose strongly between 1994 and 2008, before stagnating and declining as growth weakened. This deterioration in living standards was reflected in the ANC’s declining electoral support.

Strong economic growth between 1994 and 2008 allowed strong revenue collection, which enabled the government to expand welfare and service delivery spending even as public debt levels were halved.

The next chart shows how the share of households without electricity fell sharply between 1995 and 2008, before the pace of improvement slowed. The ANC’s strongest electoral performances coincided with the period of rapid improvements in access to electricity.

The next chart shows a similar trend in access to piped water and sanitation. The share of households with access to these services increased substantially between 1994 and 2008, before the pace of improvement slowed again and access to piped water began to decline. As these improvements weakened, so too did the ANC’s electoral support.

As economic growth slowed, job creation weakened and the funds available for service delivery came under pressure. Public dissatisfaction increased, reflected in the rising share of protests that turned violent. These protests were an early warning that the ANC was losing political support. The final chart shows how the share of violent protests increased as ANC support declined.

The ANC’s electoral support rose as South Africa’s economy expanded, living standards improved, and access to basic services increased. Its support declined as economic growth weakened and improvements in people’s material circumstances stalled.

The ANC’s defeat in the 2026 local government elections was the consequence of a prolonged economic deterioration that weakened the party’s ability to deliver the improvements in living standards that had previously sustained its political support.

Reversing that decline will require restoring economic growth, accelerating job creation, and improving service delivery. If the ANC can achieve this, it has an opportunity to recover much of the support it has lost. If it cannot, the party’s electoral decline is likely to continue.