Will Ramaphosa Resign by Christmas?

Rumours that Cyril Ramaphosa may resign intensified after a letter circulated in African National Congress (ANC) circles suggesting that the party’s National Executive Committee be replaced by allies of former president Thabo Mbeki.

Presidential special envoy Dr Bejani Chauke dismissed the talk, saying:
“There is a disturbing and unfounded rumour that President Ramaphosa will be stepping down as RSA President shortly after the G20 Heads of State Summit in Johannesburg. This rumour is devoid of truth and aims to cast aspersions on the successful build-up of the first ever G20 Summit on African soil. It should be stated unequivocally that the President of South Africa is not resigning. The administration remains stable and focused on delivering for the people of South Africa.”

Analysts have warned that the consequences of a Ramaphosa exit would be catastrophic for South Africa and reverse the positive momentum the country has experienced since the formation of its unity government last year.

Political analyst Frans Cronje cautioned that an early exit for Ramaphosa would shred that momentum, but that he was confident the resignation rumours were a hoax: “We work based on what we know, and what we know is that Mr Ramaphosa's term as ANC leader ends in December 2027. There is nothing that we have come to know that causes us to change that view, and it therefore remains our working assumption. The ANC has had a good month in the run up to the G20 conference this week. The mini-budget was very well received by investors, the rand strengthened to below 17 to the US dollar temporarily, and bond yields have come off, South Africa also got its first ratings upgrade in two decades, all of that would be lost if the ANC jettisoned him now. In addition there is no clear successor or management transition plan in place and his exit would therefore throw the ANC into chaos a year ahead of the local government elections, the odds are therefore that he is staying.”

Inside The Common Sense newsroom, staffers judge that the Ramaphosa exit rumours are a hoax. Executive Producer Gabriel Makin rated the odds of a resignation before Christmas at 3/10, Editor Warwick Grey 3/10, Senior Editor Marius Roodt 3/10, journalist Reina Opperman 4/10, intern Joane van den Berg 3/10, the In-House Guru 1/10, and Frans Cronje 0/10.

Polls being released by The Common Sense today show that Mr Ramaphosa remains South Africa’s most popular leader and that a majority of ANC supporters would even support the idea of him serving a third term.