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The scenarios, which can be read here in full together with their economic forecasts, set out three distinct political pathways for South Africa, each of which produces a very different growth outcome over the decade to 2034.

At the centre of The Common Sense’s scenario report is a simple chain of causation: political confidence drives investment, investment drives growth, and growth determines employment and political stability. The divergence between scenarios comes from how far each pathway allows that chain to function.

In the benchmark scenario, South Africa remains locked in coalition governance, with neither the African National Congress (ANC) nor the Democratic Alliance (DA) able to secure a clear national majority. This produces what is best described as managed stagnation. Growth settles into a narrow band of roughly 1% to 2% per year, sufficient to prevent systemic collapse but too weak to materially change living standards. Investment remains subdued, reform is incremental, and policy drift persists. Over time, the economy splits into two layers: a weak national system and stronger private “enclaves” that sustain pockets of higher productivity and employment. Growth is stable, but structurally low.

In the upside scenario, a reform-oriented political shift within the ANC restores policy credibility and stabilises the governing coalition with the DA. This unlocks a sustained rise in confidence and fixed investment, particularly in infrastructure, energy, and logistics. The result is a clear acceleration in economic performance, with growth rising into the 4% to 5% range. In this environment, South Africa begins to behave more like a conventional emerging market: investment leads growth, productivity improves, and employment gradually strengthens. This is the only pathway in which growth becomes self-reinforcing rather than constrained.

In the downside scenario, political fragmentation gives way to populist consolidation and hard-left radical policy. The governing centre shifts away from pragmatism and towards redistribution. Investment falls sharply, capital outflows accelerate, and the currency weakens. Growth turns negative and remains in recession for extended periods.

To learn more about The Common Sense’s scenario special report click here.