Marius Roodt, deputy editor of The Common Sense, sits with Gabriel Makin and walks through Dawie Scholtz’s model of the November local elections. The model is not a forecast.

Scholtz, an elections analyst, uses past votes, turnout, demographics, and municipal by-elections in his modelling. He ran it on five metros: Cape Town, Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and Nelson Mandela Bay.

Marius compares that model to The Common Sense and Social Research Foundation (SRF) polling in Johannesburg and Tshwane. He also looks at an analysis conducted by The Common Sense on historical election results in Cape Town and what those show could happen in the city in November. Scholtz's modelling and the SRF and The Common Sense polling and analysis say the same thing. The DA retains a majority in Cape Town and it leads in the Gauteng metros.