How the War in Iran is Reshaping the World

The war in Iran is a “hinge of history” moment for the world. This is perhaps the most significant geopolitical event since the end of the Cold War in 1989 or the 9/11 terror attacks in 2001 – and its consequences will be just as far-reaching. How will the conflict change regional dynamics in the Middle East and affect the global balance of power?

A weakened regime in Tehran

For decades, the world cowered in fear of Iran’s perceived military strength. Even the mighty United States (US) treated Iran with caution, with successive US administrations failing to contain the regime over nearly five decades.

The destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons capabilities, the severe degradation of its military power, and the death of its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will dramatically alter this dynamic. Without a clear successor, and with many of the top leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps eliminated, Iran remains in a state of interregnum.

While many speculate that the Trump administration is aiming for regime change, it is more likely that the US is interested in neutralising the security threat posed by Iran rather than ushering in a new government.

That would be nice, but it doesn’t appear to be Donald Trump’s primary goal. He will be reluctant for the US to engage in a long-term occupation of Iran (as it did in Iraq or Afghanistan) which would require the deployment of troops on the ground.

Realignment in the Middle East

The Iranians made a strategic blunder by retaliating not only against US and Israeli military positions in the Middle East, but also against civilian targets in neighbouring Gulf States.

By launching drone and missile attacks on infrastructure and residential buildings in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman – which until now had tried to play a mediating or bystander role – Iran has forced these countries to align with the Americans and the Israelis. Saudi Arabia, a long-time foe, is also mobilising its considerable military resources against Iran.

On Thursday, Iranian drones hit an airport in Azerbaijan, injuring civilians mere days after President Ilham Aliyev paid heartfelt tribute to Ali Khamenei after the latter’s demise. The Azerbaijanis are not impressed.

Regional hegemon

Iran was the primary sponsor of regional terror proxies – including Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza – whose stated goal was the destruction of Israel and “Death to America”.

However, Israel’s ability to seize control of Iran’s airspace during the Twelve-Day War last June revealed the fragility of Iran’s defensive capabilities. Now, by striking at the head of the octopus, Israel has significantly reduced this threat.

This is a remarkable turnaround from 7 October 2023, when Israel suffered its worst attack since the founding of the country in 1948 and found itself surrounded by hostile actors. The so-called “Ring of Fire” encircling the Jewish state has been extinguished and Israel now stands as the dominant power in the Middle East.

Not only is Israel regionally dominant, but it has also positioned itself as the most important partner of the US, eclipsing long-time American allies, the United Kingdom and Europe, who have chosen to remain at arm’s length from this conflict.

US regains its global supremacy

History teaches us that war is unpredictable, so the US should be careful of premature triumphalism at this moment. However, as things stand, the US actions against Iran have greatly enhanced its position as a global superpower.

Iran’s allies, China – which buys 80% of Iran’s oil – and Russia – which supplies most of its weapons – have been reluctant to offer more than rhetorical support for the regime at its moment of great vulnerability.

China will be particularly affected, with 12% of its crude oil imports coming from Iran. China is reported to have stored up to 1.39 billion barrels of oil reserves, so it might be able to weather any short-term supply disruptions.

However, the attack on Iran – as well as the weakening of the Chavista regime in Venezuela – will surely impact China’s long-term energy security and undermine its technological and military ambitions.

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s goal of a forced reunification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China by 2027 might have to be put on ice. Xi will be hoping that the US becomes mired in a protracted conflict in the Middle East. Meanwhile, Russia remains bogged down in its own war in Ukraine.

BRICS is crumbling

The conflict has also shown up the irrelevance of BRICS as an alternative to the US-led international order. Iran is one of the newer members of BRICS, but its membership has yielded little. At most, BRICS serves as a kind of diplomatic discussion club (akin to the G20) rather than a formal military or strategic alliance.

India, one of the founding members of BRICS, has been careful to manage its relationship with the US, despite some recent tensions over tariffs and its buying of Russian oil. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Israel last month and has pledged to work towards greater trade and technological co-operation between the two countries.

South Africa exposed

Just a couple of months ago, South Africa engaged in joint naval exercises with Iran. Many of those Iranian vessels now lie at the bottom of the sea, destroyed by Israeli and American bombs.

It is possible to be non-aligned (as India has shown), but South Africa’s continued support for Iran exposes the fallacy of Pretoria’s impartiality. At the outbreak of the war, South Africa bemoaned the violation of Iran’s sovereignty and co-chaired a meeting of the Hague Group, a motley crew of countries united by their antipathy towards Israel. This did not go unnoticed in Washington (and Jerusalem).

Relations between South Africa and the US were already at an all-time low, but the latest conflict will exacerbate these tensions and undermine the potential for a mutually beneficial trade and investment deal between the two countries.

It is clear that South Africa’s foreign policy establishment represents the narrow ideological interest of the African National Congress rather than South Africa’s broader national interest.

A new world order

John Endres, CEO of the Institute of Race Relations, often refers to the concept of ‘punctuated equilibrium’. Political systems, he says, can remain relatively stable for a prolonged period of time, only to be suddenly – and often violently – disrupted. Thereafter, a new equilibrium is established and the cycle continues.

The war in Iran is such an equilibrium-puncturing moment.

The world has changed – and is still changing. What follows next will define the global order for many years to come.

Ansara is CEO of the Free Market Foundation.