Why South Africa Might Have a Strong 2026 and Beyond

Despite all the doom and noise, South Africa enters the next decade with an unusually strong combination of political stability, pragmatic voters, centrist public opinion, latent energy capacity, and geostrategic leverage that could turn it into one of the standout emerging markets of the 2030s.

Start with politics. South Africa’s democracy works. In the 30 years since 1994 the country has pulled off two peaceful democratic transitions, first to a new constitutional order and then to a unity government when voters demanded change again in 2024. In each case the electoral system did exactly what it was meant to do. When governance fell short, and elites failed to correct course, ordinary people used the ballot box to enforce accountability. That basic fact is easily taken for granted but sets South Africa apart.

Across the post-colonial world many emerging markets have changed governments through coups, uprisings, or rigged processes. Since the end of formal colonial rule in the 1950s Africa alone has experienced close to 250 coups and other violent changes of government. South Africa is in the smaller group of states that replace leaders openly and transparently, a foundation that investors and citizens in many countries would envy.

The second card lies in how voters make their choices. South African voting behaviour is driven mainly by material conditions rather than rigid ideology. In the decade after 1994, as job creation accelerated and service delivery improved, support for the African National Congress rose while levels of political violence fell. Over the past 15 years, as living standards stagnated or declined, ANC support has retreated sharply. That pattern matters. If voting were mostly ideological, fixing the country at the ballot box would be far harder. In South Africa’s case the route to winning support is straightforward –improve people’s material circumstances.

A third card is public opinion itself. The polling record carried in this newspaper shows that around 80% of South Africans converge on a surprisingly centrist and practical agenda for growth and for the role of the state. There is broad support for reforms that put rail and ports under professional, often private, management; refocus procurement on value; reshape labour policy so that it prices people into jobs rather than out of them; rework empowerment to target poverty, and secure property rights. A government that pushed ahead with this package would not court rebellion, it would be cheered by most voters.

Energy is the fourth card. In practice, South Africa does not face a hard energy cap on growth. The country already has a fleet of large power stations connected to an extensive grid. Run those plants properly, maintain the grid, and clear away policy obstacles and South Africa could aspire to lift its growth rate several times over without erecting a single new pylon. New generation from nuclear and other technologies would add further capacity, but even before that, better use of what already exists could unlock a great deal of latent output.

The fifth card is geopolitical. In a world that has shifted from unipolar to multipolar, South Africa straddles one of the most important maritime chokepoints linking the Atlantic and Indo-Pacific trading systems. Sea lanes around the Cape remain central to global commerce and naval strategy. That position can be traded for long-term investment, infrastructure concessions, and preferential market access from multiple great powers, provided Pretoria sharpens its foreign and trade policy thinking and anchors it in national interest rather than sentiment.

Very few post-colonial societies have emerged from their first generation of democratic rule with such a favourable combination of assets. South Africa has a working democracy, voters who respond to performance, a centrist and practical public mood, no intrinsic energy ceiling, and a strategic location that the world’s major economies cannot ignore. Played wisely, those cards could lift the growth rate into the 4% to 5% range. Held there for 20 years, that momentum could push unemployment down towards 10% and transform daily life.

None of this is guaranteed, and poor choices could still waste the opportunity. Yet the fact that the route to success is clear, technically simple, and aligned with what most South Africans already want, is itself a powerful reason for optimism. Far from being condemned to managed decline, South Africa has been dealt a very strong hand and still has time to play it well through the 2030s and 2040s.

Pierneef was one of South Africa's greatest artists, known for his paintings of South African vistas. This column named after him aims to do something similar - sketch the broad vistas of South Africa's domestic landscape.