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The estimate rests on four assumptions. The first is that Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes, is reopened by July under a credible peace deal. The second is that the dollar weakens by between 3.0% and 5.0%, as global risk sentiment recedes (and the rand strengthens accordingly, and rand strength reduces the cost of imported goods). The third is that global demand remains steady, consistent with global economic growth of around 2.8% to 3.0%. The fourth, and most important, is that between 15 and 17 million barrels per day of disrupted Gulf flows return to the market.

Under those conditions, The Common Sense estimates that Brent would be more likely to end 2026 in the $65 to $73 per barrel range (readers should allow some wiggle room around the fringes of those numbers) than remain close to $100. That is because the main force holding oil prices up would disappear. The war-risk premium, estimated at around $20 to $25 per barrel, would likely collapse almost immediately if markets believed the deal was credible and shipping through Hormuz could resume safely.

That fall would be partly offset by two factors.

The first is an inventory-rebuild bid worth around $5 to $8 per barrel, as buyers restock after months of disruption. The second is the weaker dollar, which could add around $3 to $5 per barrel to the dollar-denominated oil price, because crude is priced in dollars. But those offsets would not be enough to keep Brent near $100 if Hormuz flows normalised.

The extent to which the price could fall would probably be capped above $60 by members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cutting production. Saudi Arabia and other producers would have little incentive to allow prices to collapse for long, especially given fiscal breakeven pressures. Saudi Arabia’s fiscal breakeven is widely estimated at levels well above $60, which means a prolonged move far below that level would increase pressure for supply management.

The South African petrol price would fall sharply under the same scenario if the rand strengthened by the same extent that the dollar weakened. Using the May inland 95 petrol price of R26.63 per litre as the starting point, and assuming Brent falls from about $100 to the midpoint of the forecast range of around $68, the crude price input would fall accordingly. If the rand also strengthened by between 3% and 5%, from about R16.65 to nearer R16.00 to the dollar, the rand cost of imported oil would fall accordingly.

On a clean scenario basis, keeping taxes, levies, margins, and transport costs mostly unchanged from January 2026, The Common Sense estimates that inland 95 petrol could fall from R26.63 to a band of between roughly R20 and R23 per litre by late 2026.

Two central risks are that the ceasefire breaks down or the Government of National Unity fractures around the time of the November local government elections (or some other domestic political shock occurs). The ceasefire breaking down would see the oil price lift back to the $100+ range, especially as global reserves and inventories were exhausted. A domestic shock would weaken the rand, thereby disabling the consequences of a falling oil price.