At around $92 to $93 per barrel, Brent was almost 20% below its wartime high. Markets took direction from comments by United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said that the outline of a deal to end the war was now in sight. For oil traders, the significance lies less in the political language than in the potential effect on shipping risk, insurance costs, supply expectations, and the speculative premium that has been built into crude since the conflict began.

The Common Sense has estimated that Brent would be more likely to end 2026 in the $65 to $73 per barrel range, with some margin for variation, than to remain close to $100.

The Common Sense has also estimated that inland 95 petrol could fall from the current near R26.63 per litre to a range of roughly R20 to R23 per litre by late 2026 if Brent moves back into the $65 to $73 per barrel band and the rand does not weaken enough to offset the benefit.

The Common Sense has throughout the war been relatively sanguine about its effects on the global economy, markets, and currencies, arguing that much media had exaggerated and overhyped global downsides.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense that thus far the newspaper’s advice had proved right, with the rand currently trading substantially stronger than it was a year ago, the global economic growth outlook only fractionally dialled back from pre-war forecasts and markets performing strongly.

According to Cronje, “If you’d put R1 million into the S&P 500 at the peak of the war, when the legacy media hysteria was at its height, your investment would be up roughly 20% today … that shows the value of serious and data-based analysis over hype.”