There were no clear winners of South Africa’s local government elections on 4 November, although there were quite a few losers. How should the political parties approach the unfolding coalition negotiations? Each of the major parties faces unpleasant choices. Would it be better to have no coalitions at all?

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is now the largest party in five of South Africa’s eight metros and would be a natural senior coalition partner in all these cities. The one place where it does not have to worry about coalitions is Cape Town, where it won an outright majority (the only metro in the country where this happened).

However, in four other metros, the DA is the largest party but fell short of a majority. The DA received 34.85% of the vote in Johannesburg, 34.37% in Tshwane, 30.68% in Ekurhuleni, and 44.17% in Nelson Mandela Bay.

Despite its strong showing at the polls, the DA is arguably in the most difficult position in these negotiations. Its choice is either to side with the African National Congress (ANC) or to take its chances with ActionSA.

Both options have serious drawbacks for the DA.

There is a risk of being sabotaged at any moment if it goes with ActionSA. This is what happened to Cilliers Brink when ActionSA abruptly ended his 18-month term as mayor of Tshwane in 2024. Entering another coalition with ActionSA would be like stringing the Sword of Damocles above the DA’s head.

A coalition agreement with the ANC would offer more stability since both parties could govern in various places without the need for a third party. However, the DA might then be seen to be going against the will of its voters by siding with the very party responsible for the chaos in the cities.

The ANC was the biggest loser in these elections, but its misery continues.

The ANC could choose to stay out of government and lick its wounds, but its experience in opposition does not bode well. Just look at Cape Town, where it scored a paltry 14.69% after decades spent languishing on the opposition benches.

The ANC’s other option is to become a junior partner in a coalition with the DA. Unlike in the Government of National Unity (GNU), where the ANC is the biggest party and can mostly call the shots, it won’t be able to set the agenda in the same way in the metros.

Being in bed with DA could also exacerbate the ANC’s internal divisions ahead of next year’s elective congress. Many, like Gauteng ANC leader Panyaza Lesufi, are already vocal critics of the GNU and don’t like the prospect of deepening ties with the DA.

Alternatively, the ANC could try to assemble a fragile multiparty coalition that excludes the DA, but that might lead to more instability and further boost the ANC’s rivals, including its latest challenger, ActionSA.

Herman Mashaba’s party recorded some impressive growth, particularly in Gauteng, where ActionSA retained most of its vote share in Johannesburg (16.26%) and grew in Tshwane (where it went from 8.6% to 22.07%) as well as in Ekurhuleni (from 6.6% to 18.5%).

ActionSA’s strong debut in 2021 came at the expense of the DA in the suburbs of Gauteng. In 2026, it changed tack and stole votes from the ANC in the townships. Joining a coalition with the ANC now would arrest ActionSA’s newfound momentum. Disillusioned ANC voters who switched to ActionSA in this election might feel betrayed.

Although ActionSA enjoys considerable power as a kingmaker, its problem is overconfidence and perceived unreliability.

While the DA and the ANC leaders have been more circumspect in their public comments, Mashaba was gloating and issuing impossible ultimatums in media interviews before negotiations even began. This may be off-putting to ActionSA’s prospective coalition partners.

Paper Politics

The most sensible coalition would be the proposal put forward by Freedom Front Plus (FF+) leader Dr Corné Mulder. In an interview earlier this week, Mulder urged the DA and ActionSA to set aside their differences and come together with the FF+ to run the Gauteng metros and other places where together they constitute a majority.

Of course, the FF+ has a strong interest in such an arrangement, but this is probably what voters would most want to see: the suburbs and the townships uniting to rid the cities of the ruinous ANC.

On paper, they have the numbers to make it work. But what works on paper does not always work in real life. ActionSA and the DA just cannot seem to get along.

Noalitions?

The alternative to chaotic coalitions is no coalitions at all.

In the wake of the historic general elections in 2024, the Free Market Foundation was the only organisation arguing for a confidence-and-supply arrangement between the major parties.

We cheekily termed this the “noalition” approach.

We argued that a minority government would be a healthier alternative to a GNU-style grand coalition, with its many ideological and policy contradictions.

The same logic applies to today’s hung municipalities and metros.

Only one party gets the mayoral chain and all executive functions. The other party stays out of the government entirely but agrees to pass budgets and refrains from calling votes of no confidence in the mayor. Everything else is put to an open vote in the council and contested on a case-by-case basis.

The Deal

A recent news report suggests that the ANC might be amenable to such an arrangement with the DA. Under this scenario, both parties agree to form minority governments wherever either party has the plurality of the votes.

This means the DA takes power in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, and Nelson Mandela Bay with the tacit support of the ANC. Meanwhile, the ANC gets to keep Mangaung (where it beat the DA by only half a percentage point) and Buffalo City, where it slumped to 41.93%.

The one metro not included in the deal is eThekwini, where the DA and the ANC lack the numbers to prevent the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) from forming a coalition without them. However, confidence-and-supply agreements could also apply to various hung councils across the country.

The beauty of this arrangement is that it does not require the old enemies to govern together in an awkward embrace. It also solves the problem of having to rely on ActionSA, which threatens them both.

The biggest risk for the ANC of confidence and supply is the prospect of losing access to the two things it covets most: positions and patronage.

However, given the dire financial and operational state of many cities, incoming administrations will inevitably have to undertake widespread and painful restructuring. The ANC might want to distance itself from difficult interventions like staff cuts and slashed budgets.

A noalition might be the least worst option for South Africa’s two largest parties. Such a deal could also deliver the stability that voters so desperately crave.

Ansara is CEO of the Free Market Foundation.