South Africa’s greatest challenge is not only the deterioration of government infrastructure, but rather its consequences, which are, among others, the downward economic spiral in towns that is caused by government decline.

As infrastructure deteriorates, it becomes increasingly difficult and expensive for big job-creating companies to survive. Operating costs rise because businesses must increasingly provide services for themselves that were previously supplied by the government. This places further pressure on their ability to operate sustainably. Factories scale down their operations or close their doors; jobs are lost; families move to areas where there is still work and better economic prospects.

AfriForum’s local structures see firsthand how businesses are subject to growing pressure. For example, in Matjhabeng municipality in the Free State, the mining industry has reportedly lost about 160 000 mineworkers over about three decades. Businesspeople in Welkom (a major town in Matjhabeng) will tell you that the effect of this is clearly visible in their turnover and financial statements as a result of purchasing power that is declining in the town.

It is important to understand why job losses have such a major effect on a local economy. A job does not simply provide an income to an individual – it also creates purchasing power. This purchasing power supports local businesses, which in turn support other jobs, professional services, schools, and the broader local economy.

When people lose their jobs and move away, the purchasing power disappears with them. Businesses that remain lose customers, while many of their fixed and operating costs remain unchanged or even increase. As a result, more businesses begin to struggle, more jobs disappear, and more people move away.

This is the downward spiral.

The central question is simple: What happens when a community can no longer rely on the government institutions that are supposed to perform essential functions?

Options

One option is to wait until the local government starts to function better again. Another is to build communities’ own capacity so that they can help fill the gaps created by government decline in a responsible manner and within the framework of the law.

As The Common Sense describes it, people are increasingly moving towards enclaves. At AfriForum and within the broader Solidarity Movement, we use the term anchor communities. Although the terminology differs, the underlying principle is similar.

People are moving to communities where there are job opportunities, good schools, reliable healthcare, and functioning services that are less dependent on the government.

Communities organise themselves around areas where they can help establish and protect greater stability, safety, economic opportunity and functional services. In this respect, the view described by The Common Sense is becoming increasingly relevant to South Africa’s future.

Well-organised communities, often with the support of private businesses, are already building the capacity to perform certain functions that have traditionally been regarded as municipal or “town services” (i.e., local government services).

The development of anchor communities or enclaves is not merely a theoretical response to government decline. At grassroots level, there are already signs of how alternative capacity begins to emerge when existing government institutions no longer function reliably. In the past year alone, AfriForum added almost 2 000 customers to its waste removal service.

Bloemfontein offers a practical example. The waste removal service at the Mangaung Metropolitan Municipality (the municipality under which Bloemfontein falls) has been unreliable for years. Consequently, residents are increasingly making use of alternative solutions. The challenge, of course, is that residents then effectively pay twice: they continue to pay municipal charges for a service that is supposed to be provided (but is not), while at the same time paying additionally for a non-government service to have their waste removed.

This has led to an important strategic shift in AfriForum’s approach. Instead of taking the municipality to court to force it to comply with its constitutional and statutory obligations, the approach is increasingly to change the reality on the ground first. Practical capacity is created and the service is delivered. The courts can then be approached to obtain fair relief for residents who must otherwise pay both for a municipal service and for the alternative solution.

AfriForum has now approached the High Court in Bloemfontein to challenge Mangaung’s practice of charging residents for waste removal services that it does not provide, while residents are forced to make alternative arrangements at their own cost. The case seeks to establish an important principle for organised communities: where the government fails to deliver a service, it cannot simply continue charging residents who have established and are using a functioning alternative. This builds on the important Woodland Hills judgement, where the courts upheld township establishment conditions that made the community responsible for its own refuse removal and prevented Mangaung from charging residents for a service that it had not been entitled to provide.

This approach changes the sequence of community action: 1) first build capacity; 2) change the reality; and 3) then use the law to obtain recognition and fair relief for that new reality. This is an important element of AfriForum’s anchor community model, because communities do not simply wait for institutional recovery before they begin to act. This is not a secret formula. The model of building capacity from the ground up – with the community as the starting point – can be applied in different circumstances across the country. It allows a community to organise around any specific issue or challenge.

Regional Differences

While the underlying model remains the same, the way in which a particular challenge is addressed will differ from region to region. The government is often constrained by rigid processes and procedures, while a community structure can adapt itself to the specific challenges that it faces. This flexibility also makes cooperation with other stakeholders easier and ultimately more effective.

However, to sustainably build such capacity, one must also know where sufficient critical mass exists or is beginning to form. AfriForum therefore cooperated with the Solidarity Research Institute to identify areas where Afrikaners are already concentrated or becoming concentrated, and where there is potential for stronger anchor communities to develop. This identification is not merely a demographic exercise. It helps determine where people, economic activity, strong and healthy schools, expertise, and institutions can reach sufficient scale to support more sophisticated community services on a sustainable basis.

The question is therefore not only where communities are strong today, but where sufficient critical mass can be built over the coming decades to sustain viable local institutions. This is where the concept of anchor communities and the debate about enclaves meet at a very practical level.

In 2026, AfriForum started to formalise neighbourhood teams in most of these anchor communities. Their main function is to provide basic town services, including repairing potholes, painting road markings, repairing road signs and streetlights, cleaning parks, and carrying out similar maintenance work. AfriForum also employs its own staff to provide these services and has already created more than 100 jobs. The capacity may still be small, but it is growing daily. Basic service delivery, however, is only the beginning.

The next phase for AfriForum is to deepen capacity, in which more specialised expertise is developed. This includes not only staff who can provide basic services, but also electricians, plumbers, artisans, project managers, civil and electrical engineers, and other specialists. The aim is to develop the capacity of communities to such an extent that they can manage the consequences of decline as well as address larger infrastructure challenges.

What we are also witnessing is that relationships with local municipalities often improve when communities themselves have greater capacity and expertise. Such communities are better able to assist municipalities with specific challenges and to act as more capable local partners.

Safety

The same principle applies to safety. Neighbourhood watches are an example of communities who are increasingly taking responsibility for their local safety. For AfriForum, the next step is to expand this capacity by establishing more local command centres, more advanced tactical training, and greater cooperation with private security companies and private forensic experts, as well as by developing more specialised capacity at local level.

Because security challenges become more complex, more sophisticated capacity is required to effectively address problems such as cable theft and organised crime, while protecting critical infrastructure. Technology is playing an increasingly important role in this.

Where organised communities have access to resources such as drones, reliable telecommunications networks, and other security technologies, and have the ability to gather information and identify incidents quickly through community command centres, their relationship with the local South African Police Service also improves. The anchor community therefore does not become an island that is separate from existing institutions, but rather a stronger local partner that can take responsibility while also cooperating more effectively with the public and the private sector.

The significance of these developments reaches far beyond potholes, waste removal or neighbourhood watches. What is emerging is a different model of community organisation: one in which people do not wait for the government to recover before the people themselves begin rebuilding the institutions, services, and capacity that their communities need.

One of the most important issues that parliament and government institutions should concern themselves with is removing any unnecessary obstacles that make it difficult for communities to organise themselves. Instead, they should create the political space for communities to build capacity, take responsibility, and thrive.

That is why the growth of anchor communities may become one of the most important political and economic developments in South Africa over the coming decades. While much of the country’s attention remains focused on what happens in Parliament and the upcoming local elections, another transformation is already taking place from the ground up.

The future of many South African communities may ultimately not depend on whether the government recovers first, but on whether those communities are given the space to build the capacity to recover themselves.

Tiaan Esterhuizen is the head of community affairs at AfriForum.