Andy Burnham, the current mayor of Manchester, is leading in a poll conducted in the constituency where he is standing in a by-election in the city, due to be held next week.

Burnham is planning to challenge British Prime Minister Keir Starmer as the leader of the governing Labour Party. To be the leader of the Labour Party, a person must be a Member of Parliament (MP), which is why Burnham is running in next week’s by-election.

Starmer is increasingly unpopular in both the Labour Party and among the broader British public, and Burnham is seen as a leading contender to replace him as leader of the Labour Party and as British prime minister.

The survey, in the Makerfield constituency in Manchester, was conducted at the beginning of this month and surveyed just over 500 people.

Burnham had the support of 49% of those surveyed, while Robert Kenyon of Reform UK was on 39%. A new populist right-wing party, Restore Britain, had the support of 8% of those polled, while the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and the Conservatives were all polling below the margin of error. Restore Britain was founded by Rupert Lowe, a former Reform UK MP.

Burnham has been the mayor of Manchester since 2017, having previously been an MP between 2001 and 2017. He also served in the Cabinet of the last two Labour prime ministers, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

If Burnham loses the by-election, it will be a severe blow to his political ambitions and could be a lifeline for Starmer, who is now one of the most unpopular modern British prime ministers.

However, the right-wing anti-Labour vote is likely to be split between Reform UK and Restore Britain, which could help Burnham secure the seat.

If Burnham is elected as an MP, he is likely to launch a challenge against Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party not long after.