South Africans view Russian president Vladimir Putin more favourably than his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy, which could mean that the Kremlin is winning the battle for hearts and minds in South Africa.

This is according to a poll conducted by Pew Research, an American think tank.

Pew surveyed nearly 50 000 people across 37 countries, between February and May this year, and asked them whether they had the confidence that Putin or Zelensky would do the “right thing in world affairs”.

Thirty-six percent of South Africans said they had confidence in Putin to do the right thing in world affairs, while 49% said they did not have confidence in him to do the right thing. With regard to Zelenskyy, 26% of South Africans had confidence in him to do the right thing in world affairs, with more than half – 53% – saying he would not.

In the survey, people in Western countries were more likely to say Zelenskyy would do the right thing compared to Putin (with some exceptions), with non-Western countries more likely to have an opposing view.

The people who had the most faith in Putin to do the right thing were Indonesians, with 64% saying they had confidence in the Russian leader to do the right thing. This was followed by Malaysia (62%), Bangladesh (55%), the Philippines (53%), and India and Nigeria (each 51%).

By contrast, the countries where confidence was highest in Zelenskyy to do the right thing were all Western countries. In Sweden, 83% of respondents had confidence in Zelenskyy, followed by the United Kingdom (68%), the Netherlands (67%), Canada (65%), and Australia (63%).

The chart below shows how people around the world feel towards Putin.

The chart below shows how people around the world feel about Zelenskyy.

Views of Putin and Zelenskyy are not only about the two leaders themselves. They also act as a proxy for broader attitudes toward Russia, Ukraine, the West, and the global order. In South Africa, the fact that 36% of respondents expressed confidence in Putin to do the right thing in world affairs, compared with only 26% who said the same of Zelenskyy, suggests that Russia’s messaging in South Africa is resonating more strongly than the Western narrative around the war in Ukraine, and around Russia and the West more broadly.

South African opinion appears to lean closer to Moscow than Kyiv (and indeed, Washington, Berlin, or London), indicating that Russia is gaining ground in the information war against the West in South Africa.

South Africa’s position gives this debate a significance that extends far beyond public opinion on Zelenskyy and Putin. The country sits astride one of the world’s most important maritime routes, the Cape of Good Hope sea passage and chokepoint, which becomes strategically vital whenever access through the Suez Canal and Red Sea is disrupted. The ability to secure or influence this route gives South Africa importance in the wider contest over control of the Indo-Pacific, global trade flows, and maritime security between the Western powers and rising challengers such as Russia and China.