People around the world are increasingly believing that China is ahead of the United States (US) in the battle to lead the world in artificial intelligence (AI).

This is according to a survey of nearly 20 000 respondents in 15 countries, conducted by Public First, a British market research company.

People were asked: “Who leads on AI: China or US?”

In 11 of the 15 countries surveyed, more respondents said China was leading on AI, with South Africa recording the strongest conviction that China is ahead, where 62% of respondents favoured China against 27% for the US.

The question is effectively a proxy for who people perceive as leading in technology and innovation between China and the US.

And perception itself can be a strategic asset in the same way as capital or computing power is, shaping investment flows, alliances, and expectations.

The only countries that believe the US is ahead of China are the US itself, long-standing US allies who are threatened by China: Japan and Vietnam, and India, which has had a fraught relationship with China for decades.

South Africa is a critical node in maritime and trade routes linking the Atlantic and Indian Oceans through the South Atlantic chokepoint system, where control of shipping lanes shapes economic leverage. This makes South Africa an important player in Cold War II between the US and China, with Pretoria being courted by both.

But the South African government has grown closer to Beijing and moved away from Washington in recent years. This latest finding on who South Africa thinks is leading the AI race suggests that Beijing is winning the hearts and minds of the South African public, which will have significant implications for future relations between Pretoria, Beijing, and Washington.

This battle for hearts and minds matters because alignment decisions in a multipolar world are influenced as much by perception as reality. The result is a geopolitical environment where soft power narratives shape hard economic and strategic alignment.