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Two state elections on Sunday in Germany saw the hard left win in the capital in Berlin while the hardish right emerged victorious in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, with immigration and rising energy prices pushing German voters away from the centre.

These elections come two weeks after an election in another German state, Saxony-Anhalt, saw the hardish-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) emerge as the biggest party in the state legislature.

In Berlin, the hard-left Die Linke party came first, winning 25.7% of the vote (up from 12.2%), giving it 47 seats in the 158-member legislature, an increase of 25 seats. [Berlin is both a city and one of Germany’s 16 federal states, making it a one of three city-states in the country.]

Meanwhile, the purportedly centre-right (in practice increasingly left) Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is also the senior partner in the national governing coalition, saw its vote share fall from 28.2% to 18.8%, with its share of seats falling from 52 to 34.

The chart below shows the results of the last two state elections in Berlin.

This was only the second time that Die Linke (which is a direct descendant of the Socialist Unity Party, which governed communist East Germany before German reunification) was the biggest party in a state, after an election in 2019 in Thuringia.

The CDU had previously governed Berlin with the left-wing Social Democratic Party (SPD) but it is now likely that Die Linke would govern in coalition with the Greens and the SPD. Together the three parties have 95 seats, enough for a majority in the 158-member legislature.

Meanwhile, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, in Germany’s north-east, and slightly north of Berlin, the AfD was the biggest party.

The AfD more than doubled its vote, going from 16.7% of the vote in the previous election to 38.2%. Its seat share went from 14 to 32, making it the biggest party in the 71-seat legislature.

The chart below shows the results of the last two elections in the state.

The CDU failed to cross the 5% threshold of support to enter the state parliament. [In Germany, a party has to get at least 5% of the vote to be represented in the legislature.] It is the first time that the CDU has failed to win a seat in a state legislature in post-World War II Germany.

Friedrich Merz, the chancellor of Germany and leader of the CDU, called the result in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern a “disaster” but said he would not resign as the country’s leader.

It is likely that the SPD, Die Linke, and the Greens will form a coalition in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern to keep the AfD in opposition.

The good results for the AfD and Die Linke can be read as reactions to high energy prices and high levels of migration, with voters in Germany, like many other voters in the rest of Europe, moving away from the traditional, formerly centrist, parties and increasingly voting for populist parties of both the right and left.

The shift away from Germany’s traditional parties, such as the CDU and the SPD, is being driven by a combination of economic insecurity, high living costs, expensive energy, migration, and growing dissatisfaction with the federal government. Germany’s economy has struggled since the 2022 energy crisis triggered by Germany’s green energy policies and exacerbated by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, while households and industry have faced sharply higher energy costs.

Migration remains an important concern for many voters, although post-election surveys suggest that economic policy, social security, and broader dissatisfaction with government have also been decisive.

These pressures are benefiting parties outside the traditional political centre from both directions.

The AfD has attracted voters demanding tighter migration controls, cheaper energy, and a break with establishment policy, while Die Linke has gained voters concerned about housing costs, inequality, pensions, and the cost of living.

The result is an increasingly fragmented electorate in which economic and political dissatisfaction is being channelled towards parties on the ideological edges.

The AfD is also now well placed to be the biggest party in Germany after the next national elections, due in 2029.

The chart below shows the latest polling from Germany.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense, “The first thing that stands out from AfD’s rise and Die Linke’s growth is the polarising consequence of poorly thought-through energy and immigration policies. As the Americans emphasised at the G20 in Houston this week, economic prosperity and growth hinge on reliable energy. If you get that equation wrong, you are going to breed populism in your country. On immigration, the lesson has always been that migrants are a great thing, but only when matched with assimilation into the culture of the host country. Fail at assimilation and the consequences will always be toxic.

“This is the same thing we’ve seen right across the Western world, where misguided energy policies and related social justice policies bring about deeply negative economic and political consequences that toxify the social fabric.

“A final point that may have interesting consequences is that AfD’s rise may open a narrow path for Europe to make a peace deal with Russia and bring an end to the horrible war in Ukraine.”