Well, finally the midterm elections are over, just in time for us to start obsessing over the 2028 presidential elections.

This week, I will try to focus on some key races, what perhaps drove the vote, and what I think might be the state of politics over the next couple of years.

Democrats and Socialists Sweep to Power

As we now know, Tuesday 2 November was a very bad day for Republicans and a very good day for the Democrats. As I type this, the Democrats have gained 41 seats in the House of Representatives and they have gained seven in the Senate, with the states of Alaska and Mississippi still counting. It’s possible that the Democrats will ultimately gain nine seats, giving them a majority of 56 in the Senate and a healthy majority approaching 80 in the House.

Formerly rock-ribbed Republican states rejected the GOP and President Donald Trump and opted for Democrats in the House and Senate, and for governorships. Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa all went Democrat, and formerly “purple” states that switch back and forth between Democrat and Republican, like Georgia and Virginia, now seem firmly Democratic.

All but one of the ten most populous states are now controlled by Democratic governors. Only Florida has a Republican governor in the form of Byron Donalds, who is also that state’s first black governor. Governorships matter enormously and could well influence the political makeup of the country for many years given how elections are run at the state and local level.

The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) had a very good night, with six new DSA members set to join the two existing House DSA members, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) and Rashida Tlaib. I fear we shall have to get used to the names Melat Kiros, Darializa Avila Chevalier, and Chris Rabb as the socialists are adoringly reported on by the media and have dragged the Democratic Party further and further to the left.

As a reminder, the DSA policy platform includes punitively high taxes, nationalised healthcare, abolition of immigration enforcement, abolition of prisons, the phasing out of fossil fuels, and the abolition of the Senate and the Supreme Court. In a word, their policies are nuts. In two words, their policies are anti-American. The rise of the DSA is evidence that civic education within the American educational system has completely failed. The fact that AOC is now being spoken about seriously as a possible presidential candidate for 2028 should send shivers down the spines of any sensible and patriotic American, but here we are.

Aside from their socialist agenda at home, the DSA members are obsessed with Israel and propose a full embargo on that country. In that, they are joined by the Democratic Senator-elect from Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, whose personal and familial ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, hatred of Israel, and antisemitic views make him probably the most radical and dangerous person to be elected to the United States (US) Senate in history. That El-Sayed will have access to sensitive national security information shouldn’t just send shivers down spines, it should also induce extreme gastric distress among the world’s freedom-loving people.

Trump Loses more than Democrats Gain

While the Democrats are rightfully celebrating their wins, it seems from exit polls that their gains have much more to do with a repudiation of President Donald Trump than any true embrace of the Democratic agenda.

Although economic growth has been relatively good and incomes have risen, persistently high inflation has meant that most Americans haven’t felt the rise in income. Real wages have been flat for the past two years. Voters who went for Trump in 2024 did so in large part because he promised the kinds of rising real incomes all Americans enjoyed during his first term. Trump has failed to deliver and is therefore being punished.

Not only has Trump failed to deliver rising real incomes, but the country has had to deal with his erratic, mercurial, unconstitutional, and economically asinine tariff and trade policy. It isn’t just that Americans have been fed up with higher prices thanks to tariffs, the disruptive and corrupt way in which Trump has used tariffs has angered and outraged millions of Americans. Perhaps one reason Republicans lost so badly in Michigan is that, just before the election, Trump embarked on a trade war with Canada. The Michigan and Canadian economies are highly integrated, and thousands of businesses and ordinary workers depend on the smooth flow of goods and services back and forth. The arrogance of a White House suddenly deciding it knew better than the millions of people making economic decisions every minute of every hour of every day was rightly rejected.

Aside from the tariffs, the murky and potentially corrupt way in which the Trump family has been making money through crypto deals and other ventures has turned off millions of Americans. It’s one thing for a candidate to enter office wealthy, and Americans are forgiving of former presidents cashing in after they leave office, but the wheeling and dealing and naked greed of the Trump family in office is staggering. The Biden family were corrupt and had spent years cashing in on Joe Biden’s various political offices. But if the Biden corruption could be compared to a small bucket of swill, the Trump family’s dealings would be vast sewer system of filth.

Almost all Americans applauded Trump for controlling the southern border after four years of uncontrolled chaos during the Biden administration that saw millions of people illegally enter the country. The Trump administration would likely have remained popular had it just stopped the flow of illegal immigrants and deported violent criminals and gang members. Yet it went further and started to round up otherwise law-abiding and decent people, some of whom came here as children and knew no other life or country than America. The sight of masked men on the streets arresting plumbers and construction workers who were now part of the fabric of local communities proved deeply unpopular.

And then there are the monuments that Trump is planning to build to himself, as well as his obsession with the White House ballroom and other improvements to the official residence, while ordinary Americans are watching their pennies so they can make their mortgage payments.

I believe the war against the Islamic Republic was warranted and justified. Some have accused Trump of starting a war with Iran. I differ and think that he was finally attempting to put an end to a war the Iranians started in 1979. Stopping the Iranians from building a nuclear weapon was essential not just for the safety and security of our allies in the Middle East, but also for our safety here at home. Yet Trump never bothered to explain to the American people why we were at war and what the stakes were. Rising petrol and diesel prices rankled many voters and probably caused many to vote Democrat, but it’s possible that voters would have accepted the higher prices if they understood the importance of destroying the homicidal maniacs who rule Iran.

Foreign policy is not normally all that influential in elections, midterm or otherwise. The Biden withdrawal from Afghanistan, however, did tarnish that administration and likely influenced the 2022 midterms because it made America look both weak and treacherous, even though many Americans wanted to get out of Afghanistan. We might be seeing something similar with Trump’s less-than-stellar conduct of the war with Iran. In his desire for a deal with millenarian mullahs who do not want a deal, Trump betrayed the Persian people who have been living under despotic rule for generations. When Trump told the Iranians that “help was on the way”, I thought there might finally be a counter-revolution. But it turns out help was not on the way, and the murders, torture, and repression of Iranians will continue for the foreseeable future. For Trump to dangle the prospect of liberation before the Iranians only to bottle is, I believe, unforgivable. While the war might have influenced American voters because of its impact on fuel prices, for me that seeming betrayal of the Iranians is the real crime.

If there is another reason to conclude that Americans were voting against Trump more than for Democrats, consider that numerous progressive ballot measures failed. Voters in numerous states voted against tax increases, against men competing in women’s sports, and in favour of voter ID at the ballot box. These ballot measures all indicate that, notwithstanding the large Democratic wave, this country remains a largely centre-right nation.

Whither the Republicans?

How the Republican Party responds to these losses remains to be seen. Writing in The Wall Street Journal, Trump’s former vice-president, Mike Pence, correctly notes that Republicans have lost their way and were punished by voters. He calls for Republicans to return to their principles of limited government, individual responsibility, and free markets. Amen to that. Florida’s outgoing governor and one-time presidential hopeful, Ron DeSantis has been doing the rounds on social media, similarly calling for Republicans to get back to their principles. As one of the country’s most successful governors who has presided over considerable growth and prosperity in Florida, he makes a strong case.

But then the current vice-president, JD Vance, came out with his theory on why Republicans fared so badly, laying the blame at the war against Iran, an insufficient focus on the economy and inflation, not putting America first, and the US relationship with Israel.

Nowhere in Vance’s analysis is there any discussion of the tariffs, the anti-immigrant raids, the corruption, the petty lawfare, the self-aggrandising personal projects. And by pointing his finger at Israel, Vance reveals that he sees his future political lane on the far-right, alongside his friend Tucker Carlson, who peddles in Jew hatred and who fawns over tyrants like Vladimir Putin.

One might have thought that the White House would take a moment to recalibrate, adjust policies and change course to try to mitigate any future Republican losses in 2028. So far, it seems you’d be wrong. Just as I was preparing this Dispatch, news broke that Stephen Miller, Trump’s deputy chief of staff and the architect of so many of his policies, would become his chief of staff, perhaps the most influential post in the White House. This indicates, to me at least, that Trump is going to double down on his policies in the time he has left, even if this hurts the Republican Party. I guess that is what you get when you allow a political party to become a cult, dominated by a narcissist who cares only for himself.

According to some news stories, the White House has indicated that it will be carefully monitoring the statements and utterances of centre-right organisations, to make sure they remain loyal to Trump. I wouldn’t underestimate the ability of this White House to vindictively target anyone who dares to break ranks. This smacks of desperation and, with every passing day, Trump’s power and influence will wane. We need courageous Republicans and conservatives to stand up to Trump now more than ever.

There is still enough time for Republicans to select a non-Trump candidate to lead the party into the 2028 presidential elections and it’s possible that the party’s next leader will be someone we aren’t even thinking about.

Whither the Democrats

No doubt the Democrats are keen on political revenge. Congressman Robert Garcia, a Democrat from California, who will head up the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, tweeted within hours of election results coming in: “Lawyer up.” And one of the most senior Democratic senators, Ed Markey from Massachusetts, tweeted: “They are going to need to plant new forests for all the subpoenas we’ll be printing.”

It’s possible the Democrats will cater to their increasingly radical base and will not only be vindictive towards Republicans, but they may also start going after mainstream centre-right think-tanks, corporations, associations, and anyone even slightly to the right of Vladimir Lenin. The Democrats might also pass legislation to nationalise healthcare, embargo Israel, raise taxes, limit educational choice, empower unions, limit free speech, and any number of other leftist wishes. The Democrats know that Trump will veto most of this agenda, but they will be signalling where they intend to go when they control the White House.

Of course, that radical agenda will be rejected by the majority of Americans who remain centrist, fiscally conservative, and socially liberal. If the Democrats choose the radical leftist path, then a way opens up for normal centrist Republicans to do very well in 2028 and for the pendulum to swing back to the centre.

The Democrats obviously know this, so it is likely they will be far less radical. The comfortable margins the Democrats have in the House and the Senate mean that they do not have to cater to the DSA radicals; they can be sensible, cautious, and bide their time. In 2028, if the Democrats don’t do anything too radical, they could easily win the White House and pick up an extra few seats in the Senate so that they have a filibuster-proof 60 seats. And that is when the true Democratic agenda will emerge, and they may try to pack the Supreme Court, pass universal healthcare legislation, pass radical climate and energy policies, and pass a host of pro-union measures, among much else. That’s a scenario that has me grasping for the antacid tablets.

In the Meantime …

Several leading Democrats, including El-Sayed, have said that they would be willing to work together with the Republicans and to make deals. And you know what that means! The only thing politicians can ever agree on is spending other people’s money. So, get ready for even more public spending, expanded welfare, and further growth in our already ludicrously high debt that now exceeds $40 trillion.

Such levels of debt are only sustainable if the economy is growing faster than the debt. Growth could falter and things could go pear-shaped very quickly. It takes a brave person to bet against the dynamism of the US economy but watch the bond markets and their appetite for US debt. Herbert Stein, the chair of President Richard Nixon’s Council of Economic Advisers, coined Stein’s Law: If something can’t go on forever, it will stop. Our current political predicament indicates that we are heading towards that stopping point, and perhaps we’ll get there sooner than we think.

With that, try to put politics out of your mind and have a good weekend!