Recent Western and local media reporting has suggested that United States (US) intelligence indicates Iran is not rebuilding its nuclear infrastructure following recent strikes, and therefore poses no imminent threat to America or its regional allies. That reporting drew heavily on an extract from a note presented by US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard. However, a full reading of the detailed report behind that note presents a much more complex picture of the actual nature of the Iranian threat matrix.

The Annual Threat Assessment of the USIntelligence Community makes clear that prior to Operation Epic Fury, Iran “was pursuing increasingly capable missile systems”, was “non-compliant with its Chemical Weapons Convention obligations”, and “had not abandoned its intention to conduct R&D of biological agents and toxins for offensive purposes”.

The same assessment states that Iran “was intending to try to recover from the devastation of its nuclear infrastructure” and had refused to meet its obligations with the International Atomic Energy Agency, including denying access to key nuclear facilities.

At the same time, US intelligence agencies state that they are “monitoring Iranian WMD-related [weapons of mass destruction] and actions” capabilities after the initiation of Operation Epic Fury.

Beyond the nuclear file, the assessment also addresses Iran’s broader military and regional posture. It states that Iran and aligned groups, including Hamas and Lebanese Hizballah, have been “severely degraded” by Israeli-led operations and US support. However, it adds that these groups “remain capable of asymmetrically attacking US interests and our allies in the Middle East”.

The report further notes that Iran “has proven capable of developing lethal operations against Americans at home and abroad and probably will attempt to pursue such efforts again” if the current government remains in power and is able to rebuild.

Taken together, the actual intelligence assessment, as opposed to a selectively quoted extract from a note, indicates that while Iran’s capabilities have been disrupted by recent military action, its missile development, non-compliance with international obligations, and broader security posture remain active concerns under ongoing observation.

There is a naïve sense in a lot of Western media reporting that the imminence threshold is only reached once Iran has a nuclear bomb and the missile capability to launch it at Israel, the Gulf states, Western Europe, and the US. Short of that, the reasoning goes, Iran poses no threat. But by then it is far too late and countermeasures will be pointless, as will negotiations. In national security terms, imminence means the ability and intent to begin assembling such a weapon, which is the point at which such capability must be extinguished and intent reversed.