On 16 March 2026, Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, head of the Basij militia, and Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), were both killed in coordinated airstrikes on senior Iranian regime targets inside Iran. These strikes were a deliberate attempt to further weaken the Iranian regime’s internal security structure, which has been pivotal in the suppression of domestic unrest.

The strikes form part of a joint campaign in which the United States (US) and Israel are pursuing complementary objectives. The US focuses on degrading Iran’s military infrastructure, while Israel is, in part, focused on removing senior regime personnel as part of a broader effort to weaken and potentially reshape the Iranian state.

The targeting of Larijani and Soleimani aligns with that second objective.

Ali Larijani was the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) at the time of his death. His position placed him at the centre of Iran’s strategic decision-making process. Larijani was responsible for coordinating military, political, and intelligence efforts.

Larijani had become a central figure in the functioning of the Iranian regime following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Since Khamenei’s death in February 2026 at the start of the war, Larijani was seen as one of the most influential figures responsible for maintaining the stability of the regime. The newly elected Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, had not been seen in public since his father’s death and is believed to have been seriously injured, possibly in a coma, from the same strike that killed the former Supreme Leader.

This reportedly left Larijani in charge of the regime's response to both internal and external challenges.

Larijani was not a moderate – contrary to what some of the Western media has been reporting.

His long career within Iran’s core institutions made him an essential part of maintaining the regime’s structure. His recent role placed him directly inside decisions relating to both the war and the repression of internal dissent. Larijani’s involvement in shaping security policies, including the violent response to protests, further entrenched his position within the regime. During the 2009 Green Movement protests, Larijani was a central figure in coordinating the regime’s violent crackdown, which included the use of lethal force to suppress demonstrators.

Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani was the commander of the Basij militia, a vital component of Iran’s internal security apparatus. The Basij is not a conventional military force but an expansive and powerful state-aligned militia that has played a central role in the regime's efforts to maintain control over Iranian society, often through brutal measures.

The Basij’s primary mission under Soleimani was to suppress protests and maintain the regime’s control over society, especially during periods of widespread unrest.

Soleimani’s forces often used live ammunition to disperse crowds, leading to hundreds of deaths, many of whom were young Iranians. This violent repression was a hallmark of Soleimani's leadership.

Beyond protest suppression, the Basij was also instrumental in enforcing the regime’s social and moral policies. The Basij acted as the regime’s morality police, regularly patrolling public spaces and intervening in any perceived violations of the state’s strict social codes, including dress codes and gender segregation. Soleimani’s forces were particularly active in ensuring compliance with these laws, arresting and detaining individuals, often for minor infractions.

Members of the Basij were often recruited from economically disadvantaged and rural areas, with promises of social mobility, housing, and other benefits.

The Basij was also complicit in rigging elections, ensuring that the regime’s preferred candidates remained in power through intimidation, voter suppression, and outright fraud. This deepened the divide between the Basij and the people, making the militia a despised institution within Iran.

While the Iranian system is designed to absorb the loss of individual leaders, the deaths of these two men would force the regime to further restructure what little remains of its decision-making processes and internal security apparatus, which may lead to greater inefficiency and fragmentation.

Readers are advised to read our Special Scenarios, especially scenario six, where we outline how no regime has been brought down solely from a bombing campaign in the air.