A prominent Washington analyst with direct contacts in the Trump administration and White House has warned that the United States (US) is preparing to increase pressure on South Africa after concluding that talks with Pretoria have failed.

Joshua Meservey of the Hudson Institute, an American think tank, made the warning on X (formerly Twitter) in response to International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola telling US Ambassador Brent Bozell III that he must “get out of the kitchen” if he no longer believes in diplomatic engagement with Pretoria.

“It is not a diplomat’s job simply to talk. A diplomat is supposed to advance his country’s national interests, primarily by means of discussion. So, talking is a tool, not an end state,” Meservey wrote.

He said Washington had already given engagement considerable time to work.

“Tools can fail. The US has judged after 18 months that approaching South Africa primarily through discussion is unlikely to be effective, so now it is moving to a more coercive model.”

Meservey said further discussion risked becoming a means of delaying difficult decisions.

“Endless discussion is also a well-known tactic to delay, distract, and obfuscate. My sense is that the SA government is paralysed as it has rarely faced the type of unavoidable demand for swift and decisive action that it now faces. It is temporising in response, hoping that some unknown entity or development will save it from its dilemma.”

He added that Washington was now expecting an answer from Pretoria rather than another round of talks.

“There is nothing that will. The US is demanding a response from the SA government on a timeline. My best bet is that Pretoria will continue to be paralysed and the US will take the next step it has been warning about.”

Meservey also rejected complaints that American pressure amounted to improper interference in South African affairs.

“Finally, the indignation about US meddling in SA’s internal affairs is tiresome. Influencing other countries’ behaviour is a staple of international geopolitics. South Africa has done it to the US in very public ways in the past.”

If Meservey’s assessment reflects thinking inside Washington, Pretoria’s room for manoeuvre is narrowing. The next test will be whether the South African government responds before the US takes the “next step” he says it has already been warning about.