The African National Congress (ANC) could finish third in Tshwane after Wednesday’s local government election.

At the time of writing, the ANC had won just less than 20% of the vote in South Africa’s capital, trailing both the Democratic Alliance (DA), which was on 34.8%, and ActionSA, which was on 22.5%.

The Freedom Front Plus (FF+) was also performing well, with 8.0% of the vote, with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 5.7%.

No other party had more than 5% of the vote, with the uMkhonto weSizwe Party on 1.9%.

Currently, Tshwane is governed by a coalition which includes the ANC and ActionSA, with Mayor Nasiphi Moya being from the latter. The city has recently suffered a number of crises, including widespread power failures and water problems, which resulted in an outbreak of disease, particularly in Bronkhorstspruit, to the east of the city. Despite this, it seems that voters are only punishing the ANC and not ActionSA for these failures.

The chart below shows the performance of the ANC, DA, and ActionSA in Tshwane since 2011.

If the results remain as is, this will be another stunning rebuke of the ANC by voters, with the party barely managing the support of one in five people in Pretoria. The tepid performances of the EFF and MKP indicate that people are also abandoning parties that emerged from the ANC, which could have profound implications for South African politics.

The DA is set to be the biggest party by some distance, but the existing ANC-ActionSA coalition could work together with other parties to keep Cilliers Brink away from the mayoral chain.