The Democratic Alliance (DA) is leading the elections race in South Africa’s commercial capital, with more support than that of the African National Congress (ANC) and ActionSA, which are coming second and third in the city, respectively.

Modelling from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) projects that the DA will win 33.7% of the vote, with the ANC on 19.6% and ActionSA on 16.7%.

The CSIR runs a prediction model that is accurate in using just a handful of district results to model the overall election result. It has projected Johannesburg’s results with 27.3% of voting districts declared.

Only two other parties were projected to get more than 5% of the vote: the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) on 7.1% and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) on 5.3%.

The chart below shows election results since 2011 and CSIR projections for 2026.

Even though the DA is by some distance the biggest party in Johannesburg, the party could still struggle to secure a workable coalition should the ANC choose to work with other parties to prevent Helen Zille from taking over the city’s mayoralty.

The Common Sense has argued, however, that the best outcome will be for the ANC and DA to work together in cities and municipalities where neither party wins a majority, but where they could  form a workable coalition. However, the ANC in Gauteng has an antagonistic relationship with the DA, meaning this possibility may be unlikely.

The result represents a remarkable reversal of political fortunes in Johannesburg. The ANC, which once governed the city with an outright majority, is now struggling to retain the support of even one in five voters, while the DA has emerged as the clear electoral frontrunner.

However, winning the largest share of the vote is not the same as winning control of the city. The fragmented political landscape means that smaller parties could once again determine who governs Johannesburg, potentially allowing the ANC to retain considerable influence despite its poor electoral showing.