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South Africa’s next local government election (LGE) is due to be held on 4 November, with a record number of municipalities across the country likely to be hung (where no party wins a majority), and this is likely to be the case in most of the metros too.

It will also be the first municipal election held since the African National Congress (ANC) lost its majority in the 2024 national election, and since the rise of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP), which became the third-biggest party in the country in 2024, and the biggest party in KwaZulu-Natal.

But what did the national election results look like in our major cities? While national election results have no bearing on who controls the cities, the national election results in the cities can provide insights into likely trends and the direction of political travel for the 2026 LGEs.

The Common Sense will be analysing what the national election results looked like in the eight metros in 2014, 2019, and 2024, and comparing them to the 2016 and 2021 LGEs, which will give some clue to what results could look like in the cities in the 2026 LGE.

Over the next few days, we will provide analysis of the trends in the major cities.

The first set of analyses will focus on the three Gauteng metros: Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni.

Johannesburg

In 2014, the ANC was the biggest party in the metro, winning 53.6% of the vote, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) winning just under 30% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) just over 10%. In 2019, the EFF saw a slight increase, with the ANC and the DA both experiencing slight declines. In 2024, the ANC’s vote share crashed, losing almost 20 points compared to 2019, with the DA and EFF also showing slight declines compared to 2019, while MK won 13%.

The two local elections held in the city showed the ANC had been on the back foot in the city for some time, winning only 44.5% in 2016 and 33.6% in 2021. The DA saw a similar decline, falling from 38.4% in 2016 to 26.1% in 2021 (possibly because of ActionSA, which won 16.5% of the vote in 2021 in Johannesburg, a large number of whom had likely been previous DA supporters).

But a key indicator to look at is the growth in the proportion of people voting for parties other than the Big Three (and since 2024, the Big Four).

In 2014, 2016, and 2019, the proportion of people voting for parties other than the Big Three in Johannesburg was only around 6%. This leapt to nearly 30% in 2021 (this was partly because of ActionSA, but even then, parties other than ActionSA and the Big Three won 13% in Johannesburg in 2021).

Comparing national elections in Johannesburg to the subsequent municipal election in the city shows the ANC could be in for a hammering. In 2016, the ANC saw a ten-point decline in the proportion of the vote it won in 2014. Comparing 2019 and 2021 sees the ANC with a whopping twenty-point decline.

Given that the ANC won 34.1% in Johannesburg in 2024, if that trend holds, the ANC could fall as low as the low 20s.

Polling conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), in conjunction with The Common Sense, in February and March this year showed that the ANC was polling at 30% in Johannesburg, with the DA on 39%. Given the trend of ANC performance in LGEs, compared to the previous national election, the ANC would be pleased if it did win 30% in the city, as on current trends it could expect to lose at least ten points in 2026 compared to 2024.

Tshwane

The trend in Tshwane was broadly similar to what happened in Johannesburg, with one important exception – in 2016, the DA outpolled the ANC in the city, the only time that has happened in Tshwane, or in any Gauteng metro.

The trend in the city, however, has been broadly comparable to what happened in Johannesburg, with the ANC’s vote share in Tshwane collapsing in a similar way to how it did in its neighbouring city.

In 2014 in Tshwane, the ANC won 51.0% of the vote, with the DA on 31.3%, and the EFF on 11.4%. In 2019, the ANC saw its vote share decline slightly, to 49.6%, while the DA dropped to 25.9%, and the EFF grew slightly to 13.8%. In 2024, the ANC dropped to 37.8%. Only a small proportion of that loss can be attributed to the rise of MKP, which won 4.2% of the vote. Meanwhile, the DA got back to above 30%, winning 30.1%, while the EFF’s vote share stayed fairly flat at 13.7%.

The number of people who were voting for parties other than the Big Three (or Big Four with the inclusion of MKP) grew from 6.3% in 2014, to 10.7% in 2019, to 14.2% in 2024.

Similarly to the 2016 Johannesburg municipal election, in Tshwane in 2016, the ANC lost about ten points compared to the 2014 election, while the DA saw a ten-point jump. The EFF remained flat at just under 12%, with fewer than 4% of Tshwane residents voting for parties other than the Big Three.

Comparing 2019 to 2021 saw the ANC lose ground, with the party winning 34.6% in the 2021 municipal poll (sharply down from what 43.3% it won in 2016 and the 49.6% it won in 2019).

The DA, meanwhile, won 32.0% in 2021, about ten points below what it won in 2016, but seven points more than what it got in 2019 in the city.

The EFF won 10.7% in 2021, also down from what it won in 2019.

The rise of smaller parties was also eevident in 2021, when 22.7% of people voted for parties other than the Big Three – only 3.9% had done so in 2016.

Polling was also conducted in Tshwane by the SRF and The Common Sense, with the DA on 45.0%, the ANC on 42.0%, MK on 3.0%, and EFF on zero. Given the small sample size when polling metros, these numbers must be handled with caution, but this could be a bad omen for the EFF, who do appear to be losing momentum in recent years.

Given the trends over the past five elections since 2014, the ANC could be on track to win about ten points fewer than it did in the city in 2024.

Ekurhuleni

The ANC has, historically, performed slightly better in Ekurhuleni than in the other two Gauteng metros, but like in Johannesburg and Tshwane, its support has cratered over the past ten years, and it may struggle to win 30% of the vote in the 2026 LGE.

In 2014, the ANC won 56.4% in Ekurhuleni, with the DA on 26.9%, and the EFF on 10.7%. The ANC vote share saw a slight decline in 2019, dropping to 55.2%, while the DA also shrank slightly to 23.1%, with the EFF growing to 13.1%. In 2024, the ANC crashed to below 40%, winning 36.2%, with the DA on 26.0%, the EFF on 11.8%, and MK on 14.5%.

Like in other metros, parties other than the Big Three (and Big Four in 2024) saw their vote share rise from 6.0% in 2014 to 8.6% in 2019 and 11.5% in 2024.

Like the broad trend in Johannesburg and Tshwane, the ANC does worse in LGEs than the comparable previous national election, while the DA generally does better.

In 2016, the ANC secured 48.6% in Ekurhuleni (about an eight-point decline compared to 2014), while the DA was on 34.2% (about a seven-point increase from 2014), while the EFF was on 11.6%, flat compared to 2014.

Comparing 2021 to 2019 saw the ANC suffer a 17-point decline (dropping from 55.2% to 38.2%), while the DA went from 23.1% in 2019 to 28.7%. The EFF was again fairly flat – 13.1% in 2019 and 13.6% in 2021.

Like the other metros, there was a big increase in the proportion of people voting for smaller parties – in 2016 only 6.0% of people in Ekurhuleni had voted for a smaller party, but this had grown to 19.5% in 2021.

If these trends hold then the ANC is likely to face heavy losses in the Gauteng metros in 2026. The rise of smaller parties is also an important trend to watch and could mean that the single biggest party in a metro could have as little as a quarter of the vote, which could also complicate the formation of coalitions.