In a new set of polls* conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) in conjunction with The Common Sense, the African National Congress (ANC) leads the Democratic Alliance (DA) by a comfortable 39% to 28%, a solid 11-point gap. This result, released this month, will come as a relief to the ANC after concerns in late 2025 when the margin between the two parties narrowed to just five points.

Frans Cronje told The Common Sense, “What we see in the national data is what we are also seeing in most major urban centres where neither the ANC nor the DA have a majority. It is pretty certain now that in most cities as well as scores of secondary centres, the election is going to deliver a result where the ANC has the option to go into government with either the EFF/MK/PA/ActionSA on the one hand, or the DA on the other.”

“Except for Cape Town, our current estimate is that almost every other metro will be the subject of a coalition negotiation.”

“In that, there is a risk, as we estimate that out of South Africa’s 200-odd municipalities, perhaps 100 municipalities may find themselves in this position, and should the ANC and the DA not be able to strike one pact, where, in the event that they have a collective majority, they agree to co-govern, such a vast number of separate negotiations could be very unsettling for investor sentiment.”

Data previously published by The Common Sense shows that ANC and DA voters alike support the idea that where no party has a majority, the two parties should establish a pact to co-govern.

Even before the 2024 national elections, in which the ANC lost its national majority, SRF data established that by a margin of two to one, ANC and DA voters alike held that both parties had some “good people and good policies”, and that their working together in government would be very good for South Africa.

Cronje also told The Common Sense that the ANC’s relatively strong numbers could likely be attributed to three things: the slight lift in the country’s economic position, the relief that a stronger rand and lower oil prices have introduced into household budgets, and the effect that the idea of a potential Patrice Motsepe presidency has had in the minds of ANC voters. The DA, on the other hand, has had a tough time amid leadership squabbles and the mishandling of the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak.

*The Social Research Foundation Q1 2026 Market Survey was commissioned bythe Social Research Foundation supported by  The Common Sense and conducted by Victory Research using a nationally representative telephonic CATI survey of registered voters (N=2 222), with metro samples upsized to over 500 respondents each in Johannesburg (n=503), Tshwane (n=510), and eThekwini (n=503). Fieldwork was conducted between 16 February 2026 and 6 March 2026 using a single-frame random digit dialling sampling design that draws from all possible South African mobile numbers, ensuring equal probability of selection and near-universal coverage given SIM penetration above 250%, more than 90% adult phone ownership, and mobile network coverage of 99.8% of the population. Respondents were screened to include registered voters only, and turnout modelling assigned each respondent a probability of voting based on likelihood indicators, with the primary model assuming turnout of 56.0%. Data were weighted to ensure the national sample reflects the demographic profile of the registered voter population across language, age, race, gender, location (urban/rural), education, and income, while metro samples were weighted to the demographic composition of voters in each metro. Results are reported at a 95% confidence level with a design effect (DEFF) of 1.762, producing margins of error of 2.1% nationally and 4.4% for each metro sample.